21 June 2007

1. "TURKEY: Into the Iraq Quagmire?", Turkey is beefing up military preparedness against Iraq-based Kurdish rebels as a prelude to a possible cross-border incursion that is opposed by the United States, European Union and the Iraqi government.

2. "Turkey says determined to combat Kurd rebels, slams Cyprus", Turkey is determined to combat Kurdish rebels operating from bases in neighbouring Iraq, the country's top security body said Wednesday.

3. "Turkish PM says Iraq cross-border operation on table", Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan told Reuters his government would authorize a military cross-border operation into northern Iraq to crack down on Kurdish PKK rebels if required.

4. "Outside View: Turkey turns eastward", one of the factors driving the Turkish/Syrian/Iranian rapprochement is their shared concern of the Kurdish question. None of the three governments wants to see the establishment of an independent Kurdish state out of fear that it would trigger nationalist sentiments within their own Kurdish populations.

5. "ECHR Interpret Limits to Freedom of Speech", although the European Court of Human Rights usually decrees against court decisions in Turkey, the most recent case is an example to the contrary. Demirel's sentence was found "not excessive". In three other cases, though, Turkey was condemned.

6. "Protest to GLBT Association Closure Demand", the demand of the Istanbul governor's office for the closure of Lambdaistanbul, an association for lesbians, gays, bisexuals, transvestites and transsexuals, has provoked reaction in Ankara. A similar demand had been dismissed on legal grounds.


1. - IPS - "TURKEY: Into the Iraq Quagmire?":

ISTANBUL / 19 June 2007 / by Hilmi Toros

Turkey is beefing up military preparedness against Iraq-based Kurdish rebels as a prelude to a possible cross-border incursion that is opposed by the United States, European Union and the Iraqi government.

Three Turkish provinces bordering Iraq have already been declared "special security" zones, limiting civilian access in the wake of an increase in bomb blasts in urban areas, including the capital Ankara and Istanbul, and attacks on the military. Although no one has claimed responsibility, official and public condemnation goes to Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) insurgents slipping in from Iraq.

In addition, troops and military hardware are being amassed in the rugged and impoverished southeast, in the country's Kurdish-populated areas.

The daily newspaper Milliyet also reported Saturday that Turkish troops were already shelling PKK rebels in frontier areas within Iraq.

So far, despite public outcry for a decisive move against an estimated 3,000 secessionist PKK rebels holed up in Iraq, there has been no major incursion.

But it has not been ruled out. And if it happens, it may have serious consequences for Turkey, Iraq and beyond.

General Yasar Buyukanit, chief of staff of Turkey's powerful military, announced publicly in April that a cross-border operation is feasible -- even advisable -- if the government gives the go-ahead.

The government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, facing opposition from allies abroad and with national elections July 22, took a softer line and said decisive action is needed against Kurdish rebels within Turkey before venturing into those holed up in Iraq. He did not exclude an eventual military expedition into northern Iraq.

But the government of the Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) may not have its way even if it has 353 members in the 550-seat Parliament.

"Extra-parliamentary" power -- particularly the military and public opinion -- has its say, too, as evidenced recently. Erdogan, once a firebrand Islamist, withdrew his possible candidacy for the president following mass protests against the move, organised by the secular establishment.

Then, when the ruling AKP nominated Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, also former Islamist, for the presidency, the military weighed in with a sudden midnight announcement seen as being against Gul's candidacy. It warned against the encroachment of Islamic values in a secular republic.

Gul's candidacy failed to obtain the required parliamentary majority, and a constitutional amendment is pending to have the people, rather than Parliament, elect the next president.

This time, despite moderation by the Prime Minister, retired generals and opposition parties are appearing on TV talk shows, urging tough military action against PKK rebels, including a foray into Iraq.

Funerals for fallen soldiers often turn into protests against the government for its perceived soft stand.

In another move independent from the government, the military has urged "mass reaction" by the public against PKK terrorism. A series of public demonstrations are scheduled in coming days.

What is at stake?

While incursion into Iraq to chase PKK rebels will certainly calm the Turkish public, it may also backfire -- and any apparent success may be more damaging in the long run, according to some analysts.

Professor Sedat Laciner, head of the independent International Strategic Research Organisation (ISRO), a Turkish think-tank, questioned the wisdom of a possible large-scale move into Iraq in a report that has become the subject of national debate.

"It may irreversibly push Turkey away from its domestic and foreign objectives (economic growth and EU membership) and events could get out of hand once they begin," he told IPS.

He said a cross-border operation could result in the death of a "few hundred terrorists", but also pave the way for recruitment of many more insurgents.

Laciner does not rule out the possibility that Turkish troops chasing PKK rebels may be opposed by Iraqi Kurds and even the U.S. military. The Kurds in Iraq are the main allies of the United States in a splintered Iraq: they sided with the U.S. invasion, while the Turkish Parliament refused to let the U.S. open a front from its territory in the war against Saddam Hussein.

Turkey is irked that the United States, its erstwhile NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) ally for over 50 years and now with a dominant voice in Iraq, is not firm enough in pushing the central Iraqi government or the local Kurdish administration to move against PKK rebels.

Prof. Ilter Turan, former rector of Istanbul's Bilgi University and a vice president of the International Political Science Association, told IPS that Turkey and the United States will find a way that could satisfy both parties, such as a limited military operation by Turkey.

According to Laciner, a full-scale Turkish military action in Iraq before the July 22 election is unlikely, but he expects Turkey to move in to establish a "buffer zone" before the summer is out, even if opposed by the United States.

The EU and the Iraqi government have also come out against any Turkish military involvement in Iraq beyond what is already known: the presence of some 2,000 Turkish troops on the Iraqi side of the border in an arrangement made with Saddam Hussein in 1997.

While the current focus is on PKK (listed by Turkey, the United States and EU as a terrorist organisation), there exists a larger "Kurdish Problem". Turkey, Syria and Iran also have sizeable Kurdish minorities and have experienced occasional flare-ups of ethnic tensions.

The Laciner report also says that if any Turkish military action goes beyond flushing out PKK rebels to involve fighting with Iraqi Kurds, it may lead to pan-Kurdish solidarity that could spell trouble for Turkey, Syria and Iran, as well as Iraq. The main Turkish concern is that a strong Kurdish entity in northern Iraq, including an independent one in case of an Iraqi meltdown, could embolden its own Kurds to seek similar status.

Kurdish population in the region is estimated at 24 million, with 12 million in Turkey, four million in Iran and two million in Syria. Iraqi Kurds claim a population of five million.

If there is a Turkish military foray into Iraq, Turkey's powerful Business and Industry Association warned of serious economic consequences, while Moody's Corporation said the country's credit rating could take a tumble.

Laciner estimates that financial losses from a large-scale military operation, apart from military expenditure, could range from one to 10 billion dollars, depending on the flight of foreign capital from Turkey.


2. - AFP - "Turkey says determined to combat Kurd rebels, slams Cyprus":

ANKARA / 20 June 2007

Turkey is determined to combat Kurdish rebels operating from bases in neighbouring Iraq, the country's top security body said Wednesday.

Turkey "will continue to take any measures the struggle against terrorism requires, whatever the circumstances may be," the National Security Council (MGK) said in a statement carried by Anatolia news agency after a regular meeting.

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has stepped up attacks this year in its 23-year armed campaign for Kurdish self-rule in southeast Turkey.

The army has called for an incursion into adjoining northern Iraq, where PKK militants take refuge, and also, according to Ankara, obtain large amounts of explosives for attacks across the border in Turkey.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said Ankara would focus on fighting the rebels inside Turkey and seek dialogue with Baghdad to resolve the issue.

He sent a letter to his Iraqi counterpart Nuri al-Maliki last week, proposing talks by the end of June.

The MGK, an advisory body which brings together the president, the prime minister, senior ministers and military commanders, said it also reviewed the Cyprus conflict.

It charged that the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot government "continues to be an element of instability in the region" and said Turkey would "maintain efforts to protect its rights and interests in the Eastern Mediterranean."

The council discussed steps for easing the international isolation of the Turkish Cypriot statelet in the north of the island, which only Ankara recognises, adding that Turkey was committed to reunifying Cyprus under UN sponsorship.

The Cyprus conflict remains a major stumbling block for Turkey's struggling bid to join the European Union.

Peace talks between the two Cypriot communities have stalled since April 2004 when the Greek Cypriots voted down a UN-drafted reunification plan even though the Turkish Cypriots gave it overwhelming support.

Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when Turkey seized the north following an Athens-engineered coup in Nicosia aimed at uniting the island with Greece.


3. - Reuters - "Turkish PM says Iraq cross-border operation on table":

AGRI / 20 June 2007

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan told Reuters his government would authorize a military cross-border operation into northern Iraq to crack down on Kurdish PKK rebels if required.

"We are continuing discussions with the armed forces. If needed we will take the necessary steps (for a cross-border operation) because we cannot allow the PKK any longer to carry out attacks," Erdogan said in an interview aboard his plane during campaigning in eastern Turkey late on Tuesday.

Ankara, a key U.S. ally in NATO, wants Iraqi authorities and the United States to crack down on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which attacks targets inside Turkey from bases in mountainous, mainly Kurdish northern Iraq.

Asked whether he believed Iraqi and U.S. authorities would honor promises to combat the PKK, Erdogan -- speaking via an interpreter -- gave a lukewarm response: "I wish to remain positive."


4. - UPI - "Outside View: Turkey turns eastward":

WASHINGTON, DCC / 20 June 2007 / by Claude Salhani

Turkey in recent years has shifted away from one of the basic tenets established by Mustafa Kemal, better known as Ataturk, the founder of the modern Turkish state, by becoming more and more involved in Middle Eastern politics.

'Turkey is now emerging as an important diplomatic actor in the Middle East,' F. Stephen Larrabee, holder of the corporate chair in European security at the RAND Corp., writes in the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs.

Indeed, as Larrabee points out, 'Ankara has established close ties with Iran and Syria,' two countries with which relations had been strained during the past two decades. Additionally, the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has adopted a more sympathetic view of the Palestinian issue, much to the detriment of Israel, with which Turkey had enjoyed more than cordial relations.

Geopolitical changes brought about by the end of the Cold War pushed Turkey to turn its attention eastwards. Larrabee explains that during the Cold War the main threat to Turkey`s security 'came almost exclusively from the Soviet Union.' With the changes brought about by the end of the Cold War, the threats to Turkey`s security shifted.

'Today, Turkey faces a much more diverse set of challenges,' writes Larrabee, including Kurdish separatism; sectarian violence in Iraq; the rise of Iran and the Islamic republic`s desire to become a nuclear power; and the fragmentation of Lebanon, partly at the hands of groups with close ties to Syria and Iran. Understandably, writes the author, Turkey has begun to focus more attention on the Middle East.

Turkey`s newfound interest in its one-time dominions is not coincidental. It comes at a time when relations with the West have deteriorated as its ambitions to join the European Union are becoming more remote, particularly since the election of Nicolas Sarkozy to the French presidency. And relations with Washington have come under intense strain since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. A poll conducted in 2006 by the German Marshall Fund found that '81 percent of Turks disapproved of President George W. Bush handling of international policies.'

Larrabee explains that these new trends in Turkish politics were brought about by 'important domestic changes in Turkish society,' primarily by the replacement of the pro-Western elite that has shaped Turkish foreign policy since the end of World War II by a more conservative, more religious, and more nationalist elite that looks upon the West with suspicion.

The catalyst that propelled Turkey 'more deeply into the vortex of Middle East politics' was the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Ankara was opposed to the idea of military intervention in Iraq from the very start; not out of sympathy for Saddam Hussein`s regime, but more out of worry that the stability he provided on Turkey`s southern border would disappear, giving the Kurds more leeway.

'Since the invasion, the Turkish leadership`s worst fears have been realized,' writes Larrabee. First, Iraq has turned into a 'breeding ground for international terrorism.' Second, Iran`s influence in the region continues to grow. Third, and perhaps the most worrisome for Turkey, is the 'drive for autonomy' of Iraq`s Kurds, a trend Ankara fears will encourage its own Kurdish population to aspire for independence.

One of the factors driving the Turkish/Syrian/Iranian rapprochement is their shared concern of the Kurdish question. None of the three governments wants to see the establishment of an independent Kurdish state out of fear that it would trigger nationalist sentiments within their own Kurdish populations.

But despite the newly found friendship between Ankara and Tehran, Turkey remains extremely worried by Iran`s urge to acquire nuclear weapons. And should Iran achieve nuclear capability, Turkey would be forced to take countermeasures. According to Larrabee, Turkey would have three options.

First, Turkey could expand its missile defense cooperation with the United States and Israel. Second, it could enhance its military capabilities, including its medium-range missiles. Third, it could develop its own nuclear program -- an option Turkey would consider 'only as a last resort' and if 'its relations with the United States declined.'

Turkey`s relations with the United States have suffered as a result of Ankara`s overtures to Damascus and Tehran, causing 'concern in some quarters in Washington.' The fear among some U.S. officials is that Turkey`s friendship with the Middle East would come about at the detriment of relations with the West.

However, that should not be the case. As Larrabee so adequately puts it, if managed properly, Turkey`s flirtation with its neighbors to the east 'could be an opportunity for Washington and its Western allies to use Turkey as a bridge to the Middle East.'


5. - Bianet - "ECHR Interpret Limits to Freedom of Speech":

Although the European Court of Human Rights usually decrees against court decisions in Turkey, the most recent case is an example to the contrary. Demirel's sentence was found "not excessive". In three other cases, though, Turkey was condemned.

STRASBOURG / 20 June 2007

Although Turkey is often convicted by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) for violating the right to freedom of expression, the ECHR has decreed in the latest case that freedom of expression was not curtailed.

Hünkar Demirel, the manager of the weekly newspaper "Yedinci Gündem", had appealed to ECHR after being convicted for "aiding and abetting a terrorist organisation by spreading propaganda. In June 2002 hehad received a sentence of 3 years and 9 months imprisonment, later converted into a fine.

The cause of the trial was an article published in the newspaper in July 2001, in which Demirel was analysing "reasons for joining the organisation" (i.e. the PKK).

"Legitimising PKK rebellion"

Demirel appealed to the ECHR, arguing that he had not had a fair trial, that his freedom of expression had been curtailed, and that his right to property had been violated. The ECHR agreed unanimously that there were doubts about a fair trial with the State Security Court (DGM). However, it also argued that the article represented an incitement to violence, quoting sentences such as "If someone wanted to kill you, you would use legitimate self-defence," and "If the world is uniting against us, we will use our right to self-defence." According to the ECHR, the article was an attempt at "legitimising the PKK rebellion" and apologised violent and random acts of the organisation. The ECHR decreed that in the light of the agenda of the article, the received sentence was not excessive.

Turkey is to pay Demirel 1,000 Euros in legal costs.

In three cases decrees against Turkey

One the same day (14 June), the ECHR demanded a total of 5,250 Euros compensation payments for violating Article 10 in three separate cases.

* Managing editor of the pro-Kurdish "Yeniden Özgür Gündem", Mehmet Colak, had appealed to the ECHR because it was forbidden in September 2002 to distribute or sell his newspaper in the eastern provinces under emergency law, and because this procedure was not audited by the judiciary.

* Mehmet Selim Okcuoglu appealed to the ECHR after receiving a one-year prison sentence and a fine for "separatist propaganda" and "incitement to hatred and hostility" from the State Security Court (DGM) in September 1998. He had written an article in the Kurdish-interest People's Democracy Party (HADEP)'s newsletter, entitled "About the Court Case Against Our Leaders".

* Tuncay Seyman, editor-in-chief of the "Yeni Evrensel" newspaper, and Fevzi Saygili, the owner, were punished by the DGM in February 2000 for "inciting hatred and hostility" with their article entitled "The Kurdish Problem and the Struggle for Equal Rights". They too won their appeal to the ECHR.


6. - Bianet - "Protest to GLBT Association Closure Demand":

The demand of the Istanbul governor's office for the closure of Lambdaistanbul, an association for lesbians, gays, bisexuals, transvestites and transsexuals, has provoked reaction in Ankara. A similar demand had been dismissed on legal grounds.

ANKARA / 20 June 2007

The Istanbul governor's office is demanding the closure of Lambdaistanbul Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transvestite and Transsexual (LGBTT) Association, arguing that both the name of the association and its mission are "inconsistent with general morals and Turkish family values".

The Kaos Gay and Lesbian Association has organised a press conference in which it said that "Discrimination according to sexual orientation is aiming to hinder the freedom of organisation for homosexuals". At the press conference in Turkey's capital Ankara, several associations were present in support: the Pink Life Association, the Ankara University Sexuality Studies Group, the Ankara Women's Platform, the Initiative to Stop Racism and Nationalism, Kaos GL Izmir, the Kaosist Homosexual Civil Society Initiative, the MorEL Eskisehir LGBTT Formation.

Buse Killickaya of the Pink Life Association who read the press release reminded the audience that homosexuals, bisexuals, transvestites and transsexuals organised in order to show that not only heterosexuals lived in this society, but that these organisations were being obstructed. She added that a similar demand by the Ankara governor's office to close the Kaos GL Association had been rejected because the demand was incongruous with the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office's Association Law, European Union political criteria, the Accession Partnership Document, the European Human Rights Agreement and other international human rights agreements that Turkey had signed.

It was argued that the closure of Lambdaistanbul would be illegal and that the Kaos GL case should be considered a legal precedent.