6 January 2007

1. "Islamists Versus Secularists: The Coming Storm In Turkey", Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and the national movement of Kemalism which he initiated in the 1920'ies, may finally meet their nemesis in the person of Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the charismatic leader of the ruling Islamist Party and current Prime Minister of Turkey.

2. "Amnesty hits out at Turkish state's stance on freedom of speech", the murder of a journalist in Turkey has brought one of the country's most controversial laws further into the spotlight. Article 301 of the Turkish penal code, which prohibits "insults to Turkishness", had three times been used to prosecute Hrant Dink, an outspoken newspaper editor who was murdered this month.

3. "Turks sacked in killer video probe", two Turkish security officials lost their jobs on Monday in a widening investigation into video footage that appeared to portray as a hero the teenage killer of a prominent Turkish-Armenian editor. Last week, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, under pressure in an election year for failing to combat crime, vowed to tackle what he called "gangs within state institutions".

4. "Turkey could emerge as a new threat in Iraq", growing confrontation between Iraqi Kurds and neighboring Turkey presents a new threat to a fragile calm in the north.

5. "Turkey plans air raids and shelling Kandil", Turkish authorities under public pressure "to do something" against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK ) holed up in northern Iraq have decided that limited military action like air raids and shelling Kurdish rebels hideouts in the Kandil Mountains from the Turkish side of the border is the best option for now.

6. "'PKK members' held in Paris raids", French police say 13 Turkish Kurds have been arrested on suspicion of money-laundering to help guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers Party, the PKK.


1. - Hellenic News - "Islamists Versus Secularists: The Coming Storm In Turkey":

5 February 2007 / by Dr. Christos Evangeliou*

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and the national movement of Kemalism which he initiated in the 1920'ies, may finally meet their nemesis in the person of Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the charismatic leader of the ruling Islamist Party and current Prime Minister of Turkey. The year 2007 did not begin well for Turkey, with the hideous murder of Hrant Dink, Editor-in-Chief of Agos, the main newspaper of the Armenian Community in Constantinople. But, in all probability, this year will be fateful for Turkey's future, for it will be a year of elections for a new President as well as a new Government, perhaps with many surprises.

It is reasonable, therefore, that the question in the minds of many thinking Turks and their friends these days is whether the history of the 1997 will be repeated, with Mr. Erdogan in the role of Mr. Erbakan. Some also wonder whether Erdogan will decide finally to use his current parliamentary majority to have himself elected President, in the parliamentary election of the President in the spring, leaving thus his trusted friend, Mr. Abdullah Gul, to lead the Islamist Party (AKP) to a renewed victory in the fall of 2007.

However, such possible development will not go down well with the powerful Turkish Military, which is the real political power in Turkey since the time of Ataturk. Traditionally, the Turkish Military has kept a vigilant eye on the political developments and has intervened regularly every ten years or so to put Turkey back in the "right track," any time the poor country tried to breathe a little more freely and more democratically.

These days the Turkish Military, under the leadership of General Buyukanit, does not seem thrilled with the possibility of having the headscarves of Mrs. Erdogan and her Islamist friends in and out of the Presidential Palace of the nominally "secular" Turkey. But, given Erdogan's demagogic appeal to the Islamic masses, the Kemalists may not have a choice, unless they decide to take drastic action soon. Hence the possibility of a collision between Erdogan's Islamists (the same as Erbakan's in 1997) and Kemalists, who seem determined to keep Turkey "secular" and under their control in perpetuity.

This may sound strange and paradoxical in view of the fact that Turkey desires to become a member of the European Union, where militaries are under "political control." The Erdogan Government, so far at least, has played very skillfully the card of a process of possible membership in the EU in the distant future, in order to weaken the Military's grip on power in Turkey, while at the same time it has advanced the interests of the AKP. But it is doubtful that the Kemalists will allow Erdogan and his Party to proceed further in a direction which, in their minds, under-mines the "secularism" of Ataturk's legacy.

Kemalism, as a political phenomenon, was the product of political conditions that obtained at the end of World War I, the Great War that brought an end to three Empires: the Austrian, the Russian, and the Turkish. Several nationalistic, militaristic, and secular movements took shape at the period between the end of the First and the Second World War in Europe, in response to the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia in 1917: Fascism in Italy, Kemalism in Turkey, Nazism in Germany, and the dictatorial regimes of Franko in Spain and Metaxas in Greece. Of these regimes, Kemalism proved to be most durable.

It is a mark of Ataturk's genius that Kemalism is still active in Turkey, while the other revolutionary regimes of the 20th century have been dead and forgotten a long time ago. The creations of Metaxas, Franko, Mussolini, Hitler, and even Lenin and Stalin, are history now. Only Ataturk's structure was able to survive to this day. This may be partly due to the fact that, even after his Party gave up the monopoly of political power, real power remained with the Turkish Military (that is, the National Security Council). The parties were allowed to play their political game of holding elections periodically and succeeding each other in government, so long as they did this by following the rules of the game as established by the NSC. Until now, the scheme has worked remarkably well.

But now the Islamists in power in Turkey may decide to change the rules of this old game that is getting to their nerves. Since they do have the majority of the vote, they may undo democratically the "secularism" that General Kemal established dictatorially. Following the example of the Iranian Islamist Revolution, they may set new rules for the game, with controlling power in the hands, not of Generals, but Imams, Ayatollahs, or a Caliph. Such development will certainly make Mustafa Kemal turn in his grave, and make Kemalism history finally. Such possible development will be in accord with the spirit of revival revolutionary Islam that is spreading in the Middle East and in Anatolia. But will Kemalists permit its coming, if they think that they have the power to prevent it?

That is the question to which this year, as we said, is expected to provide the answer.

The situation is serious, and not only for Turkey and its political future. Judging by certain recent moves and pronouncements of the Turkish NSC regarding the Cyprus problem, they seem to contradict the statements of the Erdogan Government and its expected moves to meet its responsibilities to the EU that will allow the process of negotiations to continue.

So, Cyprus may be used once again as a pretext for the Turkish Military to take action to frustrate the designs of Erdogan's Party. The Greek diplomacy would do well to keep an eye on forthcoming political developments in Turkey and to be prepared to act accordingly. Given its recent history of "surprises," it should not be surprised this time.

Alternatively, the Turks may decide to interfere in the politics of Northern Iraq. This could happen especially if the Turkish militarists believed that the US has by now forgotten the Turkish refusal of its request to open a second front in the North in the crucial face of the Iraq war, in the spring of 2003. The US paid a heavy price for that. It cannot forget, although it seems that it has forgiven the Erdogan Government and the Turkish Military for being uncooperative and even unfriendly in a time of need. That is not what was expected from an ally, on whose military America has invested so many billions of dollars for so many years. Communism may be dead, but Islamism is re-born.

* Dr. Christos Evangeliou is Professor of Hellenic Philosophy at Towson University, and author of several books including the latest, Hellenic Philosophy: Origin and Character.


2. - The Lawyer - "Amnesty hits out at Turkish state's stance on freedom of speech":

5 February 2007

The murder of a journalist in Turkey has brought one of the country's most controversial laws further into the spotlight.

Article 301 of the Turkish penal code, which prohibits "insults to Turkishness", had three times been used to prosecute Hrant Dink, an outspoken newspaper editor who was murdered this month.

Editor of the Agos newspaper and a contributor to the influential daily Zaman, Dink was indicted for articles discussing the genocide of thousands of Armenians that took place in the final years of the Ottoman Empire, an incident that is still officially denied by the Turkish state, which says the deaths were the result of inter-ethnic strife and famine.

The prosecutions raised Dink's public profile, making him a target for fanatics and the recipient of death threats, which culminated in his murder on 19 January 2007.

Article 301's prohibition of insults to Turkishness is seen as a restriction on freedom of speech and a blot on a penal code that was supposed to modernise Turkey's legal system. Opponents of the article claim that the law holds the country back from more than just the transition to a fully functioning democracy.

Despite significant progress at reform, human and civil rights continue to be a major stumbling block to Turkey's EU accession. The high-profile prosecutions of Dink and others have led to criticism from non-governmental organisations, and further boosted resistance to Turkish accession from many EU member states.

Amnesty International spokesman Steve Ballinger said: "Nationalist lawyers use Article 301 as a way of stifling free speech in Turkey. We think that Article 301 needs to be repealed; and the attitude of the state and the military contributes to an environment in which journalists are under threat."

In 2006 alone more than 50 individuals were indicted for statements that questioned state policy on topics such as religion, ethnicity and the role of the army.

On 28 February Amnesty International is hosting an event at its London headquarters to press for the repeal of Article 301. More details can be found at www.amnesty.org.uk.


3. - Reuters - "Turks sacked in killer video probe":

ANKARA / 5 February 2007

Two Turkish security officials lost their jobs on Monday in a widening investigation into video footage that appeared to portray as a hero the teenage killer of a prominent Turkish-Armenian editor.

The state-run Anatolian news agency said authorities in the Black Sea city of Samsun had sacked a fifth policeman and transferred a fifth member of the paramilitary gendarmerie to other duties following similar dismissals last Friday.

It said the dismissals were made at the request of a government inspector but gave no further information.

The video footage showed Ogun Samast, 17, posing in front of a Turkish flag with security officials shortly after his arrest last month on suspicion of killing the editor Hrant Dink outside his newspaper office in Istanbul. He has confessed to the crime.

Dink's funeral drew 100,000 mourners onto the streets in protest at the militant nationalism that apparently inspired his killer. Seven others have also been charged in the Dink case.

Dink had infuriated Turkish nationalists by urging Turkey in his writings to face up to its responsibility for the mass killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915.

The video footage has revived fears in Turkey of a shadowy "deep state" working in collusion with criminal gangs.

The "deep state" is code for hardline nationalists purportedly based in the security forces who are ready to break the law if need be in defence of their ideology.

Last week, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, under pressure in an election year for failing to combat crime, vowed to tackle what he called "gangs within state institutions".


4. - Inter Press Service - "Turkey could emerge as a new threat in Iraq":

ARBIL / 5 February 2007 / by Mohammed Salih

Growing confrontation between Iraqi Kurds and neighboring Turkey presents a new threat to a fragile calm in the north.

Tensions have run high between Iraqi Kurds and Turkey since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, but they were further exacerbated last month when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Teyyip Erdogan threatened to send forces to northern Iraq.

The aim, Erdogan said, was to crack down on guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and to protect the rights of ethnic Turkomens in the oil-rich city Kirkuk.

"There are efforts to alter the demographic structure of Kirkuk. We cannot remain a bystander to such developments," Erdogan told members of his ruling Justice and Development Party Jan. 17.

Some Kurdish leaders fear a new war front could open up in Iraq's northern Kurdistan region, which has been by far the safest part of the war-torn country. They fear this could open the door for further intervention by other regional powers like Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

While Turkey speaks of the PKK and Turkomens' rights in Iraq to justify any possible military invasion, some analysts speak of its other intentions.

"One clear reason for military invasion by Turkey would be their old ambition to re-annex Mosul 'Vilayet' (province) to its territory. They are still thinking in terms of the old Ottoman empire," Ata Qaradakhi, a political analyst from Sulaimaniya in Kurdistan told IPS.

Iraq's major northern provinces which were once a part of the Mosul Vilayet under the Ottoman empire were incorporated into the Iraqi state when it was founded in the early years of the 20th century by Britain.

"Turkish leaders are also worried over the growing influence and authority of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq since the fall of Saddam, and fear it could inspire their own Kurdish population," Qaradakhi added.

Over the past few weeks, movements by Turkish troops on the border with Iraq are reported to have increased. Turkey has deployed around 240,000 troops on the border strip with Iraq, and has bombarded areas within northern Iraqi Kurdistan region several times over the past eight months.

In the 1990s, Turkish troops carried out cross-border operations in pursuit of PKK guerrillas based in Iraqi Kurdistan.

The Kurdistan regional parliament held a meeting last week to discuss increasing threats of a Turkish military invasion.

"It is true that we must be on alert, and careful, but shouldn't attach too much importance to threats by the Turkish parliament or other parties (in that country)," Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government Nechirvan Barzani told parliament.

"Under Iraq's current circumstances, neither Turkey nor any other
(regional) country can send troops to Iraq. Then the issue wouldn't be only Kurds, it would be the issue of violating the sovereignty of another state, that's Iraq."

Kurds count on the presence of U.S. troops as a bulwark against any regional threats.

But several Kurdish politicians sharply criticized the government of Shi'ite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki for not reacting strongly enough to Turkish threats.

Turkey has called on Iraqis to change constitutional Article 140, which sets out a roadmap to bring normalcy to the disputed oil-rich city Kirkuk in the north. The city has large numbers of ethnic Arabs, Turkomens and Kurds. The Turkish demand, which seeks more for Turkomens in the city, has sparked angry reactions in Kurdish circles.

"Turkey must give others the rights which it gives to itself," Ghafour Makhmouri, a Kurdish lawmaker said during the parliament session.

"We have also the right to demand changes in Turkish constitution regarding the rights of millions of Kurds in Turkey, the same way that Turkey assumes the right to ask for the rights of Turkomens in Iraq."

Kurds hope that once Article 140 is executed, they can vote to bring the province within their autonomous region.

Meanwhile the Turkish government stopped fuel trucks from crossing its border to Iraq this week. It said it will not accept the Kurdistan Regional Government as a legitimate partner for sending fuel to Iraq, and would sign deals only with the Iraqi central government.

But many believe Turkey will not go so far as to invade Iraq. Apart from other things, that would thwart Turkish hopes of joining the European Union, Qaradakhi said.

"Kurds in Iraq can also create problems for Turkey just as much as Turkey can do. They can use the Kurdish card in Turkey to create unrest there, and Turkey knows that that wouldn't serve Turkish interests."


5. - The New Anatolian - "Turkey plans air raids and shelling Kandil":

5 February 2007 / by Ilnur Cevik

Turkish authorities under public pressure "to do something" against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK ) holed up in northern Iraq have decided that limited military action like air raids and shelling Kurdish rebels hideouts in the Kandil Mountains from the Turkish side of the border is the best option for now.

Government sources and military analysts agree that a land incursion is out of the question for now simply because military evaluations have shown that such an operation needs U.S. blessing which is lacking and in practical terms this costly venture will not really achieve much.

The government which is trying to court nationalist votes in the November parliamentary elections feels it has to make a move action against the PKK in northern Iraq while the military rank and file are putting pressure on the Armed Forces leadership to act against the Kandil Mountains.

Turkish officials fear the PKK which has now declared a ceasefire will resume activities with the advent of Spring. Sources close to the Kurdish rebels say the PKK will not resume activities in Turkey. Iraqi Kurdish leaders are also going to pains to convince the PKK not to start a new armed campaign.

Iraqi Kurdish leaders say they convinced the PKK to stop attacks in Turkey and are continuing to encourage the PKK leaders like Murat Karayilan not to resume actions. They said this was one of the reasons why Karayilan was allowed recently to appear on the official Kurdish KTV in an hour long interview.

Turkey does not recognize the PKK ceasefire and says it will not make any move to legitimize the rebel organization.

Turkey has asked the Americans who control the security apparatus in Iraq to deal with the PKK but the U.S. has failed to do this adding to the frustration of the Turkish government and the military.

Turkish officials say while the Americans have managed to grab Iranian officials in Erbil despite objections form the Iraqi Kurdish leaders the fact that they have not been able to apprehend any PKK members in northern Iraq have raised question marks in Ankara about
U.S. sincerity to deal with the issue.

Turkey has assessed the pros and cons of a land operation against the PKK in the Kandil Mountains.

One option was an all out offensive penetrating deep into northern Iraq by 350 kilometers. According to analysts this would need 510,000 men and would last for 160 weeks which would ruin Turkey's fragile economy.

The other option was a military incursion penetrating 30 to 60 kilometers inside the Iraqi border. This needed 200,000 troops and would cost around 2 billion dollars. The New Anatolian was told Turkey contacted Iran over the issue and the Iranians promised to deploy massive forces along the border in case of such a Turkish incursion to block the escape routes of the PKK.

Both options needed American blessing. The New Anatolian was told the Americans would not approve of such military action. The Americans do not want new complications in Iraq and besides that they now need to enlist the full cooperation of the Kurdish leadership that runs northern Iraq and thus would not take any decisions that would alienate them.

Turkish sources said the Americans would turn a blind eye to a limited military operation against the PKK if Turkish jets raided the area and Turkish forces shelled the Kandil Mountains.

Turkish authorities were told by the official analysts that any incursion or air raids would not yield a dismantling of the PKK in northern Iraq.

Officials say these issues will be discussed when Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul visits Washington this week. Chief of Staff General Yasar Buyukanit will also take up these issues when he also goes to Washington later this month.


6. - BBC - "'PKK members' held in Paris raids":

PARIS / 5 February 2007

French police say 13 Turkish Kurds have been arrested on suspicion of money-laundering to help guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers Party, the PKK.

Those detained are all believed to be PKK members, police said.

They had been under investigation since last July when two Kurds were detained in Paris trying to change 200,000 euros into dollars, officials said.

The PKK, which is fighting for autonomy in south-east Turkey, is considered a terrorist group by the EU and the US.

Police said small amounts of cash were seized during the raids, which took place in the suspects' homes in various Paris suburbs.

"These are people we suspect of funding the PKK," a spokeswoman for the Paris prosecutors office was quoted as saying by Reuters news agency.

The Turkish government has been urging the EU and the US to do more to crack down on the PKK which has several thousand fighters based in northern Iraq from where it can launch attacks on Turkey.

The PKK's conflict with Turkey has claimed more than 30,000 lives since it began in 1984.