26 April 2007

1. "Turkey: The AK Party's Move to Secure Its Power", Turkey's ruling conservative Justice and Development (AK) Party announced April 24 that current Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul will be the party's candidate for the presidency. The announcement follows weeks of speculation that AK leader Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan would himself seek the country's highest office. The selection is in part a concession to the Turkish military and secular forces in the country, but it should also help the AK secure its current hold on the country's government ahead of parliamentary elections in the fall.

2. "Turkey parties urge snap election", Turkey's presidential hopeful unsuccessfully lobbied smaller parties on Wednesday to try to block the nationalist-minded main opposition from challenging the legality of his expected election.

3. "Armenia/Turkey: Divided on genocide, but warming", the mass killings and deportations of Armenians by Ottoman Turks continues to blight relations between Armenia and Turkey.

4. "Turkish human rights activists urge to apologize in front of the Armenian nation", “All those who are aware of the annihilations of Armenians in 1915, do not keep silence, all those who do not want to call a spade a spade, must know that we present thousands of apologies to the Armenian nation,” says the statement of the Human Rights Protection Office, which was published in Eveinsel, Birgun and Gundem newspapers April 24. 5 office staff members, including head of Istanbul branch Hyuriet Sener undersigned the statement.

5. "Abondened Ammunition Kills a Child inTurkey's Southeast", an abandoned ammunition went of in the southeastern city of Sirnak, killing one child and injuring three others. The Ottawa Treaty, ratified by Turkey in 2003 obliges state parties to clear all abondened ammunition and protect civilians in risky regions. Especially the southern regions of Turkey suffer from such casualities as both the Turkish army and the Kurdish guerillas leave ammunition that threatens civilians.

6. "Many 'honour killings' of Kurdish women: UN", Iraq's relatively peaceful northern region of Kurdistan is witnessing a large number of so-called "honour killings" of women, the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq said Wednesday.

7. "U.N. criticises Iraq's Kurdistan on press freedom", journalists in Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region face arrest and harassment for reporting on government corruption and poor public services, the United Nations said in a human rights report on Wednesday. The United Nations also criticised Kurdish officials for failing to tackle frequent cases of "honour killings" of women and said hundreds of detainees in Kurdish prisons were being held without charge.

8. "The Iraqi Kurdish Question", a recent war of words between Turkish officials and Iraq's Kurds has revived concerns of a cross-border conflict in northern Iraq, the most peaceful part of the country. The head of Turkey's military recently threatened an invasion of the region to clear it of pro-independence Kurdish rebels who are offered sanctuary by the local government. Ankara also fears an independent Iraqi Kurdistan might further encourage separatism among Turkey's own sizeable Kurdish population. A major bone of contention remains the unsettled status of Kirkuk, an ethnically mixed city in northern Iraq whose large oil fields are coveted by many groups. An upcoming referendum, slated for late 2007, on the city's status has drawn protests from Turkish and Arab governments. Tensions have risen in Kurdistan while the U.S. military focus remains squarely on its security operations in Baghdad.

1. - Stratfor - "Turkey: The AK Party's Move to Secure Its Power":

24 April 2007

Summary

Turkey's ruling conservative Justice and Development (AK) Party announced April 24 that current Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul will be the party's candidate for the presidency. The announcement follows weeks of speculation that AK leader Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan would himself seek the country's highest office. The selection is in part a concession to the Turkish military and secular forces in the country, but it should also help the AK secure its current hold on the country's government ahead of parliamentary elections in the fall.

Analysis

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced April 24 that his conservative Justice and Development (AK) Party will stand current Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as its presidential candidate when elections begin in the country's parliament May 1. Because the AK holds a majority in the Grand National Assembly, Gul's election is thought to be secure. By nominating Gul, the AK is lifting some of the pressure it faces from the military, which would have firmly opposed Erdogan's candidacy, and paves the way for the prime minister to lead the party into parliamentary elections.

It is not entirely clear why the foreign minister is considered a more acceptable candidate by Turkey's military, guardians of the secular order who likely signed off on his nomination. Gul is a longtime personal confidant of Erdogan, himself a onetime presidential hopeful and a divisive figure in Turkey because of his Islamist past. Both Erdogan and Gul were members of the banned Islamist parties Refah (Welfare) and Fazilet (Virtue). Both men's wives wear the Muslim headscarf, an issue that has dogged Erdogan's term as prime minister. Gul served as prime minister in 2002 over a government that amended the constitution so that Erdogan, who had been convicted of inciting religious hatred after reading a religious poem at a political rally, could be elected as prime minister himself.

Where the AK and the military begin to differ is in their definition of secularism. The generals espouse the French practice of forced secularism whereby any outward expression of faith is banned when acting on behalf of or participating in activity related to the government, even during school attendance. The AK would like to broaden that into a more American definition, whereby the state itself takes no official religious stance, but individuals are free to express their beliefs openly, even in government and public administration buildings.

The military clearly still distrusts Erdogan, who attended religious schools as a child and in 1995, as mayor of the city, referred to himself as "the imam of Istanbul." The difference between Gul and Erdogan, in the military's mind, is likely Gul's term as foreign minister, which has been characterized by a successful working relationship between the ministry and the military. The military also sees Gul as less tainted by the threat of Islamism. As foreign minister, Gul has sternly addressed Kurdish separatist issues in the southeast and refused to give in to U.S. pressure regarding cross-border operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party. In March, Gul addressed U.S. calls for moderation of rhetoric on the Kurdish issue, saying, "We will do what we have to do, we will do what is necessary. Nothing is ruled out." This was music to the ears of Turkish generals who have been itching to make a move against what they regard as Turkey's most pressing security concern.

As much as the relationship between Gul and the generals might have been beneficial and professional, the military realizes it is now operating from a weakened position. Officers who once were quick to stage a coup when they felt the government was straying too far from Kemalist principles can no longer bully the civilian leadership. The AK has been in power for five years, during which per capita income has more than doubled. Public debt has been reduced to 44.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), down from 91 percent in 2001. GDP growth in 2006 reached 6.1 percent, above the forecast 5 percent increase. The increased stability has started attracting larger foreign investment, which would be likely to flee should there be another military takeover.

The Turkish presidency is a tricky thing. While Gul and Erdogan seem to be cut from the same cloth, Gul is already speaking like a man imbued with the traditional trappings of the presidency. Following the ceremony at which his nomination was announced, Gul told reporters, "The president must be loyal to secular principles. If I am elected, I will act accordingly." This might not bode well for Erdogan's and Gul's relationship. Turkey's president holds wide veto power over government appointments and legislation, a prerogative that outgoing secular President Ahmet Necdet Sezer used widely to check the AK government. Should Gul feel the need to balance the interests of his party, the military (over which he would be commander-in-chief) and his own inclinations, a serious rift could develop.

What is beneficial for the AK, however, is that now that Erdogan has foregone the presidency, he is free to lead the party into this fall's parliamentary elections, where it will look to improve on its current majority. In fact, there has been talk among AK members of moving the elections, scheduled for Nov. 4, to an earlier date. This would allow the AK to ride the tide of popularity and Gul's presumed selection as the country's 11th chief executive, as well as head off any ill effects from a flare-up in tensions with Iraq over the Kurds. The AK remains very popular in Turkey, and while the choice of Gul for the presidency could lead to internal conflict in the future, it has for now given the AK the best chance to continue its political dominance.

2. - Al Jazeera - "Turkey parties urge snap election":

25 April 2007

Turkey's presidential hopeful unsuccessfully lobbied smaller parties on Wednesday to try to block the nationalist-minded main opposition from challenging the legality of his expected election.

Two opposition parties urged the Islamic-leaning governing AK Party to postpone the presidential election and call an early general election instead.

The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) vowed to boycott Friday's vote in parliament after the AK Party failed to consult them over Abdullah Gul's nomination.

The AK Party picked Gul, Turkey's foreign minister, as its candidate on Tuesday.

Tensions escalated further on Wednesday when an unknown armed man attacked the headquarters of Turkey's secular higher education board (YOK).

The man fired three shots before escaping, but no one was hurt.

YOK officials said the man had tried to forcibly enter the office to see Erdogan Tezic, a staunch secularist who has often clashed with the AK Party.

Political domination

On Wednesday, Gul held talks with the True Path Party and independent MPs in a rare conciliatory move.

The True Path Party and ANAP, parliament's third largest party, said they would hold more talks before deciding on what position to take on Friday.

Gul said: "I told them 'if parliament approves my candidacy and picks me as president ... I am aware of the responsibility of overcoming the difficulties which emerge from (the fact that) Turkey is a very politicised society'."

Analysts and diplomats say they see little risk that Gul would not win the presidential vote because of the AK Party's control of parliament with 354 seats out of 550.

But the party needs the attendance of the two opposition parties in the chamber during the vote to help stave off the CHP's legal challenge.

The CHP insists at least two-thirds of deputies must be present or the vote will be invalid.
Turkey's powerful secular establishment, which includes army generals and judges, had campaigned hard to stop Tayyip Erdogan, the country's prime minister, from running for president.

They accuse him of harbouring a hidden Islamist agenda and seeking to undermine the republic's separation of state and religion.

Charges denied

Both Erdogan and Gul strongly deny the Islamist charges.

Turkey's leading newspapers, often at odds with the AK Party, have largely given Gul their support.

For its part, Tuisaid, Turkey's leading business association, has played down any threat Gul's election might pose to the secular system.

Meanwhile, Turkey's lira currency and sovereign bonds extended gains as investors signalled their approval of Gul.

3. - RFE/RL - "Armenia/Turkey: Divided on genocide, but warming":

The mass killings and deportations of Armenians by Ottoman Turks continues to blight relations between Armenia and Turkey.

25 April 2007

Armenians around the world are commemorating the 92nd anniversary of the mass killings and deportations of Armenians by Ottoman Turks.

Armenians refer to this chapter in their history as genocide -- a term the Turks firmly reject.

It's an issue that continues to blight relations between Armenia and Turkey. The two countries do not have diplomatic relations and the 268-kilometer border between the two countries has been closed since 1993.

Armenians say that Turks killed up to 1.5 millions Armenians in 1915-18 as the Ottoman Empire was beginning to crumble. Turks say the killings were part of the wider conflict of World War I, and that only 300,000 Armenians died.

Global Recognition

Today, the controversy has gone global, with a number of countries debating whether the killings can be called genocide -- the deliberate and systematic destruction of a racial, political, or cultural group.

Many countries, including Russia, and Canada, have passed legislation recognizing the killings as genocide.

In the United States, many members of Congress -- dominated by the opposition Democrats -- have voiced support for a bill to officially recognize the Armenian killings as genocide. The bill has met with stiff opposition from supporters of the presidential administration, which is eager to maintain smooth ties with its NATO ally Turkey.

But even as the genocide debate has occupied international politics, some Armenians believe it's time for their country to move on.

Davit Gevorgyan, a 21-year-old computer programmer from Yerevan, says he thinks that pushing the issue of genocide is no longer appropriate.

"We should remember everything that's happened, but we don't need to use that to create a certain political course. I think we should live in the present time, since there are more important issues, real issues, today," Gevorgyan says.

"It would be better to solve these than to devote all our energy and efforts to those old issues. Many politicians are using the Armenian genocide to create their political platform in Armenia and it serves as a trump card, a way to manipulate people. They simply abuse it."

Politically Charged

But politicians in both countries aren't likely to shift toward a more moderate stance on the genocide issue in the months ahead. Armenia holds parliamentary elections in May; Turkey will have presidential and general elections this year.

A dramatic policy switch on such an emotional issue could prove a massive political liability in a season when officials will be fighting to hold onto votes.

Soner Cagaptay, who heads the Turkish research program of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Washington, D.C., says that "the public is as staunch, in some ways, on this issue and in their entrenched commitments, as the politicians are."

Officially, Turkey has said that to establish diplomatic relations it would require Armenia to drop its policy on seeking recognition of the genocide internationally.

However, some Turkish politicians have said that Turkey should not attach such preconditions to the opening of the border.

That is mirrored by recent Armenian comments. Speaking at the OSCE in Vienna recently, Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said that in order to normalize relations with Turkey, the Armenian side has no preconditions and expects that Turkey should not have any either.

What complicates the issue is the powerful and wealthy Armenian diaspora. The diaspora has huge lobbying power in the West, particularly in the United States.

Cagaptay says that Armenia and the Armenian diaspora do not always have the same position.

"Armenia seems to be more pro-dialogue with Turkey -- unconditional dialogue, that is. Whereas the Armenian diaspora will not start a dialogue or a normalization of the relations unless Turkey unconditionally recognizes there is something called the Armenian genocide," Cagaptay says.

Another complication in relations between the two countries is Nagorno-Karabakh, the ethnic Armenian enclave that Azerbaijan, Turkey's traditional ally, and Armenia fought over in the beginning of the 1990s.

Business Links

Despite the impasse, however, there are significant business links between the two countries.

The border, while officially closed, is quite porous in places. Traders also travel from Armenia via Georgia to sell their goods in Turkey. Some Armenians labor as guest workers in eastern Turkey and there are regular flights between Yerevan and Istanbul.

Many in the business community in Armenia and Turkey have lobbied for the border to be opened. They say it would have a huge effect in revitalizing poor regions on both sides of the border.

Noyan Soyak from the Turkish-Armenian Business Development Council says trade has grown significantly, from $35 million in 1997 to well above $150 million now.

"The free flow of people, the free flow of commodities, would definitely have a great impact on the development of the region, of the economical development of the region," Soyak says.

In the troubled relationships between Armenia and Turkey, there have occasionally been brief periods of hope for reconciliation.

Turkey's earthquake in 1999 was one of them, when Armenians sent truckloads of aid. The murder of Armenian-Turkish journalist Hrant Dink in January 2007, when tens of thousands of Turks turned out for his funeral, was another.

Turkey also recently completed a $1.5 million restoration of an ancient Armenian church located on an island on historic Lake Van in Turkey's eastern Anatolia region.

Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, called the reconstruction a "positive" message. But a better one, suggested Armenian Foreign.

4. - PanARMENIAN.Net - "Turkish human rights activists urge to apologize in front of the Armenian nation":

YEREVAN / 25 April 2007

“All those who are aware of the annihilations of Armenians in 1915, do not keep silence, all those who do not want to call a spade a spade, must know that we present thousands of apologies to the Armenian nation,” says the statement of the Human Rights Protection Office, which was published in Eveinsel, Birgun and Gundem newspapers April 24. 5 office staff members, including head of Istanbul branch Hyuriet Sener undersigned the statement. She said, in the 21st century too illigal actions are taking place in Turkey, say murder of Hrant Dink or latest events in Malatia.

“Those in Turkey who do not want to call a spade a spade the events of 1915, must know that thousands of apologies are necessary in front of the Armenian nation. Turkey must face its history in order to create an open society,” Sener underscored, PanARMENIAN.Net reported, citing Armenian Public TV.

5. - Bianet - "Abondened Ammunition Kills a Child inTurkey's Southeast":

An abandoned ammunition went of in the southeastern city of Sirnak, killing one child and injuring three others. The Ottawa Treaty, ratified by Turkey in 2003 obliges state parties to clear all abondened ammunition and protect civilians in risky regions.

SIRNAK / 24 April 2007

A child dies in the southeastern city of Sirnak while playing with an unexploded army ammunition. Three people, two of them children also got injured.

Sirnak Mayorship revealed in a report that the children found the abandoned ammunition in a street and it went of while they were playing with it.

The Ottawa Mine Ban Treaty, which Turkey ratified in 2003, foresees that state parties should clear all abandoned ammunition and anti-personel landmines.

As of 2007, it has been signed/accessioned by 155 countries. Forty states, including the People's Republic of China, Russian Federation and the United States, are not party to the Convention.

Furthermore, state parties to the Treaty are obliged to take the necessary cautions to protect civilians in risky regions.

Especially the southern regions of Turkey suffer from such casualities as both the Turkish army and the Kurdish guerillas leave ammunition that threatens civilians.

Local media covering the recent incident didn't mention those aspects and failed to provide a critical approach in its articles.

6. - AFP - "Many 'honour killings' of Kurdish women: UN":

BAGHDAD / 24 April 2007

Iraq's relatively peaceful northern region of Kurdistan is witnessing a large number of so-called "honour killings" of women, the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq said Wednesday.

In its 10th report on human rights situation in Iraq, covering three months to March 2007, UNAMI said Iraq's three Kurdish provinces of Dohuk, Arbil and Sulaimaniyah have reported dozens of women killed for "immoral conduct".

"Between January and March, UNAMI received information on some forty cases of alleged honour crimes in Arbil, Dohuk, Sulaimaniyah and Salaheddin where young women reportedly died from accidental burns at their homes or were killed by family members for suspected immoral conduct," the report said.

Citing examples, the report said in January the charred remains of a woman were found on the outskirts of a town in Arbil, while a woman and her married boyfriend were reportedly shot dead by her brother in February.

The report criticised the Kurdish regional government for its slow response to these acts of violence against women.

The United Nations also expressed concern over the treatment of detainees in prisons run by Kurdish Asayish (security) forces, and over atttacks on press freedom by the same shadowy organisation.

"UNAMI continues to receive allegations of torture or ill-treatment of detainees in Asayish detention facilities," it said.

"The Kurdistan Regional Government continued to subject journalists to harassment, arrest and legal actions for their reporting on government corruption, poor public services and other issues of public interest."

Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region largely runs its own affairs and has enjoyed relative peace and growing prosperity since the US invasion of March 2003, while Arab areas of Iraq have plunged into sectarian warfare.

7. - Reuters - "U.N. criticises Iraq's Kurdistan on press freedom":

BAGHDAD / 25 April 2007 / by Yara Bayoumy

Journalists in Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region face arrest and harassment for reporting on government corruption and poor public services, the United Nations said in a human rights report on Wednesday.

The United Nations also criticised Kurdish officials for failing to tackle frequent cases of "honour killings" of women and said hundreds of detainees in Kurdish prisons were being held without charge.

Kurds promote Kurdistan as one corner of Iraq that is relatively stable, in contrast to the rest of the country that is engulfed in sectarian violence between majority Shi'ites and minority Sunnis. Drawing on that image, Kurdistan plans to build a $400 million "media city" for international organisations.

While most journalists' deaths in Iraq took place in Baghdad, the human rights report on Iraq said most arrests of journalists it recorded between January and March were carried out by the Kurdish security forces.

"The (Kurdish) authorities continued to subject journalists to harassment, arrest and legal actions for their reporting on government corruption, poor public services or other issues of public interest," the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) said.

Dindar Zebari, the Kurdish regional government's United Nations coordinator, criticised the report saying it had numerous "fallacies" but said the Kurdish administration was aware of human rights violations.

Referring to journalists' arrests, Zebari said: "What happens is that legal procedures are followed against some who overstep the standards of the journalism profession."

He said the government was working to enact new laws on women's and children's rights.

HONOUR KILLINGS

Women's rights to life and personal security remained a "serious concern" in the Kurdish provinces of Arbil, Dahuk and Sulaimaniya given the high incidence of "honour killings and other abuses against women," UNAMI said in its report.

"Between January and March, UNAMI received information on some 40 cases of alleged honour crimes ... where young women reportedly died from 'accidental burns' at their homes or were killed by family members for suspected 'immoral' conduct."

It said it continually received reports about domestic and communal violence which were largely ignored by the Kurdish authorities.

Zebari said the honour killings were a phenomenon of Kurdish tribal society. It was "difficult to impose tough measures easily".

The United Nations said it was also concerned about arbitrary detentions by Kurdish authorities. Hundreds of detainees have been held for long periods without charge or without being referred to an investigative judge, it said.

The report said UNAMI had received allegations of torture or ill-treatment of detainees at government detention centres.

A Kurdish official who declined to be named justified the detentions.

"There are some people who are dangerous for the stability of Kurdistan and there is no material evidence against them ... so they are detained without official documents and for long periods of time since this might limit their danger on society.

8. - Council on Foreign Relations - "The Iraqi Kurdish Question":

24 April 2007 / by Lionel Beehner

A recent war of words between Turkish officials and Iraq's Kurds has revived concerns of a cross-border conflict in northern Iraq, the most peaceful part of the country. The head of Turkey's military recently threatened an invasion of the region to clear it of pro-independence Kurdish rebels who are offered sanctuary by the local government. Ankara also fears an independent Iraqi Kurdistan might further encourage separatism among Turkey's own sizeable Kurdish population. A major bone of contention remains the unsettled status of Kirkuk, an ethnically mixed city in northern Iraq whose large oil fields are coveted by many groups. An upcoming referendum, slated for late 2007, on the city's status has drawn protests from Turkish and Arab governments. Tensions have risen in Kurdistan while the U.S. military focus remains squarely on its security operations in Baghdad.

What triggered the recent flare-up in tensions?

In early April, Massoud Barzani, a top Iraqi Kurdish leader, threatened to "interfere" with the Turkey's Kurdish populations if Ankara continued "interfering" in northern Iraq, particularly in Kirkuk. His comments set off a political storm in Turkey. A U.S. State Department official called them "dangerous, provocative, and unhelpful." Judith Yaphe of the National Defense University says Barzani wants to lay down a marker with the Turks, but may have stepped over the line. "He's very cocky and thinks he has all kinds of support," she says. "But does he really think the [Kurdish militia] peshmerga can save him from a Turkish incursion?" In response to Barzani's comments, Turkey's top military chief, General Yasar Buyukanit, said the army should carry out a cross-border invasion to root out Kurdish rebels holed up in Iraqi Kurdistan. Barzani, in an April 16 meeting with new U.S. ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, seemed to retreat from his earlier outburst, but added "we will never accept being threatened."

Is a Turkish incursion into northern Iraq likely?

Experts disagree. On one hand, Turkey has made a number of small-scale and mostly unsuccessful incursions into northern Iraq over the past few decades (the most recent came in 1991 but failed to put down the Kurdish insurrection). Experts say an upturn in similar kinds of attacks--air strikes or commando raids--may be more frequent. But a full-scale invasion on the scale imagined by Buyukanit remains an unlikely scenario, says Joost Hiltermann, a regional expert with the International Crisis Group. "They would never go across the border without U.S. approval," he says. The comments made by the Turkish general, he says, owe more to internal politics in Turkey, which will hold presidential elections in May, than to military realities on the ground. "It's mostly just bluster," says Hiltermann. What is more, he adds, given the region's inaccessible terrain, no government has been able to dislodge Kurdish militants from the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq. "It's like Tora Bora," he says. But others say an incursion by Ankara is not improbable. "Turkey is under a lot of stress," says Yaphe. "I don't think it would take much [for the situation] to flare up."

What are Turkey's main grievances with Iraqi Kurdistan?

The Turkish government has demanded that Iraqi forces arrest members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), who use northern Iraq as a haven to carry out attacks against Turkish targets, and extradite them back to Turkey to stand trial. Turkey fears this group is resurgent and estimates as many as four thousand PKK rebels are currently in Iraq. Some experts note the timing of the latest Turkish-Kurdish tensions coincides with a presidential election in Turkey and may represent the government pandering to popular support for a crackdown against Kurdish insurgents. Others expect an increase in cross-border attacks as the snow melts in the mountains of northern Iraq. To tackle the Kurdish problem, Turkey has forged an uneasy alliance with Iran, which also holds substantial Kurdish minorities with pro-independence goals. Iran has reportedly even begun shelling Kurdish targets and abetting Islamist groups in northern Iraq.

What is the position of Iraq's Kurds?

Many of Iraq's Kurds sympathize with the aims, if not the methods, of the PKK, which pushes for greater Kurdish autonomy. But the leadership in Iraqi Kurdistan is nervous about upsetting the generally-stable status quo by offering full support to the PKK. Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations says in this CFR.org interview that a Kurdish-led clampdown against the PKK could provoke a new round of violence in the north between the various Iraqi Kurdish political factions and PKK. Still, a bigger issue for Iraq's Kurds is not the presence of PKK forces on their soil but the unsettled status of Kirkuk.

Why does Turkey oppose Kurdish annexation of Kirkuk?

Turkey considers Kirkuk a historically Turkmen city, though some experts debate the merits of this argument. "They talk of this as a deep emotional issue, that the Turkmen are our brothers, but part of this is an invention," says Yaphe. "Since when did they care about the poor Turkmen?" Turkmen and Turks are ethnically and linguistically related, but most experts say a bigger fear for Turkey is the oil wealth that would flow into the hands of Iraqi Kurds. Turkey fears it would provide a steady flow of revenue from Iraqi Kurds to fund the separatist struggle of some Turkey's thirty million ethnic Kurds. In Ankara's view, Kirkuk provides the final piece for an independent Iraqi Kurdistan, which could whip up Kurdish nationalism in Turkey. Hence, Ankara has vociferously protested the upcoming referendum, as mandated by the Iraqi constitution, to determine Kirkuk's fate.

How have the Kurds sought to claim Kirkuk?

Although the Kurds have been in de facto control of Kirkuk since 2003, they want the city to be incorporated officially into their self-governing region. They won a major victory in March when Baghdad endorsed a relocation plan for Arabs, mostly poorer Shiites, who were forcibly moved to Kirkuk as part of Saddam Hussein's "Arabization" campaign. This measure was mandated by Article 140 of Iraq's constitution. It is a voluntary program with participants reportedly receiving about $15,000 and a plot of land, but Yaphe says a campaign of intimidation--or what she calls ethnic cleansing, at the hands of the Kurds--has preceded these relocation efforts. "You can be shot or you can go," she says. An estimated 350,000 Kurds have transplanted themselves to Kirkuk since April 2003, while roughly 150,000 Arabs have fled because of intimidation or violence. "They've complained about being Arabized," says Yaphe. "Well, now they're Kurdifying the area." Hiltermann says many of the city's Arab residents were not forced out but fled voluntarily. "Most people don't want to be there," he says. "It's not safe. There are no jobs, no infrastructure."

Why does Kirkuk hold so much importance to Iraqis?

The city remains home to large Turkmen, Arab (both Shiite and Sunni), Kurdish, and Christian populations, each citing ties dating back centuries. "The Kurds see Kirkuk as their Jerusalem but the Turkmen see it as the same way," Yaphe says. But underneath the surface, the city's large oil reserves may be driving these groups to claim control the city. Located 180 miles north of Baghdad, Kirkuk and its surrounding area hold roughly 8 percent of the country's estimated 78 billion barrels of oil reserves. The Kurds have already have already signed production sharing agreements with foreign oil companies to develop oil fields in the region. The deals come amid heavy debate in Baghdad over a nationwide law to distribute oil revenues. The highly contentious law focuses on clarifying vague language in the Iraqi constitution over how oil revenues from future oil fields should distributed and whether existing contracts already made by the Kurdish authorities would be recognized. The Kurds may partly compromise on the hydrocarbon law "from a desire among Kurds to have companies operate in their territory with the confidence that a national law would impart," writes Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The city has also witnessed a string of recent suicide attacks, mostly at the hands of al-Qaeda-affiliated insurgents. Peter Galbraith, a former U.S. diplomat, calls Kirkuk a "ticking ethnic time bomb." Experts expect an escalation of violence there ahead of the referendum. Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army has a presence in the city and has reportedly staged attacks against PUK and KDP government institutions.

What is the likelihood of the referendum on Kirkuk taking place?

There is considerable resistance from Sunni Arabs and Turkmen to the referendum taking place as scheduled. The bipartisan U.S. Iraq Study Group recommended it be delayed until a more favorable political climate emerges. Kurdish officials in Baghdad have repeatedly threatened to pull out of the government if their demands on holding the referendum are not met, and the Shiites in power have a tacit alliance with the Kurds. But the terms of the referendum have yet to be determined, including Kurdish demands to push out the borders of Kirkuk's province to include four largely Kurdish towns. The Kurds have met stiff resistance from Sunni Arab politicians as well as from Sadr's Shiite faction, which fears a Kurdish-controlled Kirkuk would spur Iraq to break up along ethnic lines. Hiltermann, in a new ICG report, calls the referendum process "a train wreck" and presses the U.S. government to create a new process to reach a final status on Kirkuk that is acceptable to the Kurds and other ethnic and political parties in Iraq.

What role has the United States played?

The United States is in a bind, experts say. On one hand, as Hiltermann points out, the Kurds have been the most reliable U.S. ally among Iraq's warring ethnic and political factions (though tensions heightened in January after U.S. Special Forces nabbed five Iranian operatives in Irbil without notifying Kurdish authorities first). On the other hand, Washington does not wish to upset its already-fractured relations with Ankara, a traditional U.S. ally in the region. The United States classifies the PKK as a terrorist organization but has neither pressured the regional Iraqi Kurdish government to rein in the PKK rebels nor deployed troops to northern Iraq. "It's a question of not wanting to upset the apple cart in northern Iraq," says CFR's Cook. "[The Turks] want the United States either to engage the PKK militarily directly, or to give Turkey useful intelligence so the Turks can go after the PKK themselves." Washington has repeatedly told the Turks not to intervene in Iraqi affairs and appointed a retired Air Force general, Joseph Ralston, as a special envoy to defuse the crisis in Kurdistan. According to the Washington Post's David Ignatius, Ralston warned the White House last December that Turkey might invade by the end of April or seize an eight-mile border strip in northern Iraq unless there is a heavier U.S. intervention. Experts say Washington is preoccupied with security operations in Anbar Province and Baghdad. That could change with a flare-up of violence--or ratcheting up of political rhetoric--along the Iraqi-Turkish border.