16 April 2007

1. "EU Urges Restraint Over Turkish Talk of Kurdish Crackdown", Turkey has been clamping down on Kurds and PKK supporters at home and abroad Turkey has been clamping down on Kurds and PKK supporters at home and abroad.

2. "Iraqi Kurd official blasts Turk general's war talk", the speaker of Iraqi Kurdistan's parliament on Friday described a call by Turkey's top general for a military operation in northern Iraq as a "dangerous escalation".

3. "Turkey: Punk Rockers Face Prison Time For Protest Song", five Turkish punk rockers and their agent face up to 18 months in jail after a government official was offended by the lyrics of a song criticizing the country's unpopular university entrance exam.

4. "Police storm Nokta weekly", Istanbul Police Friday searched the Nokta weekly, which published allegations that former force commanders were planning to stage a military coup against the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party government.

5. "ECHR fines Turkey to pay almost 100,000 euros", the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) yesterday decided that there had been a violation of Article 3 (prohibition of inhuman or degrading treatment) of the European Convention on Human Rights on account of ill-treatment by the prison authorities and gendarmes in Buca Prison on 20 July 1995 and the ensuing inadequate investigation.

6. "Turkey in a tight corner, not mentioning the presidential elections", the more Ankara speaks against the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, the more countries and organizations are interested in real facts.

7. "Sezer: Turkey’s secular system in great danger", Turkey’s president said on Friday that the country’s secular system of government faced its gravest danger since the founding of the republic in 1923. The stark warning from Ahmet Necdet Sezer, ahead of elections next month that could give Turkey its first head of state with Islamist roots, came on the heels of similar remarks by the powerful army chief on Thursday.

8. "Turkey Has Three Options on Kirkuk", this Iraq partition scenario is a disaster for Turkey, which would become Iran’s next target. Turkey has only three options to avoid defeat.

1. - Deutsche Welle - "EU Urges Restraint Over Turkish Talk of Kurdish Crackdown":

13 April 2007

Turkey has been clamping down on Kurds and PKK supporters at home and abroad Turkey has been clamping down on Kurds and PKK supporters at home and abroad.

The European Commission urged Turkey on Friday to play a "constructive" role in Iraq a day after Turkey's army chief called for a military incursion into northern Iraq to hunt Turkish Kurd rebels.

"The stability of Iraq is in our common interest," Commission spokeswoman Krisztina Nagy told reporters in Brussels. "The EU recognizes the constructive role Turkey plays in the area and in this context it is important that Turkey continues to play such a positive role," she added.

"The EU is following the situation in the region very closely," said Nagy. "Our hope and the interest of all involved is that possible differences are dealt with in a peaceful and constructive manner."

In a rare press conference at the army headquarters, General Yasar Buyukanit pushed on Thursday for a cross-border operation into northern Iraq to crack down on Turkish Kurd rebels he said had sought refuge there.

General Buyukanit said that it was necessary to launch a cross-border military operation against PKK rebels based in northern Iraq there, but that this would require political authorization. "It is necessary to launch an operation into Iraq," Buyukanit told reporters. "The PKK has huge freedom of movement in Iraq."

Missions within Turkey target returning fighters

He also said the military had launched a number of large-scale operations against Kurdish rebels in south-east Turkey. Buyukanit said the operations had been launched as snow melting in mountain passes made it easier for PKK rebels to enter Turkey from neighboring Iraq.

Turkey has accused Iraqi Kurds of tolerating, and even backing the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has waged a bloody campaign for Kurdish self-rule in Turkey's southeast since 1984. The conflict has claimed some 37,000 lives. The Turkish military has claimed there are around 5,000 PKK guerrillas based in camps in mountainous northern Iraq.

Ankara says thousands of militants of the PKK enjoy unrestricted movement in northern Iraq and are able to obtain weapons and explosives there.

Iraqi Kurds taking threats very seriously

The Kurds in northern Iraq are taking the threats by the Turkish army to launch a military offensive against Kurdish rebels seriously, the president of the autonomous Kurdish parliament said Friday.

Adnan al-Mufti told reporters in Arbil, northern Iraq that "these threats are nothing new for us, we take them seriously." He said the authorities in the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq would seek the support of the Iraqi government.

"We want a dialogue, but those responsible in Turkey are not ready for one," al-Mufti added.

When asked why the Kurdish authorities, who control three provinces in northern Iraq, have not taken action against PKK rebels, al-Mufti said that "the situation in Iraq is altogether too unstable; therefore we cannot take steps against this party."

The Turkish government has repeatedly called on the United States and Iraq to launch its own operations against the PKK in northern Iraq. The organization is black-listed as a terrorist organization by both the US and the EU.

On Friday the president of the Iraqi parliament Mahmoud al- Mashhadani warned that all those foreign powers that had a hand in Iraq's internal affairs would have "the hand hacked off."

Observers interpreted this statement as referring to the Turkish military threats to intervene in northern Iraq.

2. - Reuters - "Iraqi Kurd official blasts Turk general's war talk":

ARBIL / 13 April 2007 / by Shamal Akrawi

The speaker of Iraqi Kurdistan's parliament on Friday described a call by Turkey's top general for a military operation in northern Iraq as a "dangerous escalation".

General Yasar Buyukanit, head of Turkey's military General Staff, said on Thursday the military operation would aim to crush Turkish and Kurdish rebels hiding in Kurdistan. He said he had not asked parliament to authorise any such operation.

"The threats by (Buyukanit) are a dangerous escalation that we take very seriously," Adnan al-Mufti told a news conference in Arbil, the capital of Iraq's largely autonomous Kurdish region in the north of the country.

"We hope that reason will prevail in taking decisions, because any military intervention will complicate matters more and will shape a threat to the Iraqi people."

Turkey has repeatedly urged the Baghdad government and U.S. forces in Iraq to crack down on an estimated 4,000 rebels from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) who use northern Iraq as a springboard to attack targets inside Turkey.

Mufti criticised the Turks, saying they had refused to speak with Iraqi Kurd officials.

"We asked for negotiations with Turkish officials to discuss the problems ... but the problem was on the other side," he said.

Ankara has said it reserves the right under international law to send troops into northern Iraq to tackle the rebels if Iraq and Washington continue to disregard its calls for action.

The United States reacted coolly to Buyukanit's comments.

The escalation in rhetoric came after Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani said in a television interview last week that Iraqi Kurds would interfere in Turkey's mainly Kurdish cities if Ankara interfered in northern Iraq.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki sought to calm Turkey after Barzani's comments, making clear Iraq's foreign policy was decided by the government in Baghdad.

Turkish and Iraqi Kurdish leaders have since verbally sparred, but Buyukanit's comments marked a sharp escalation.

"The existence of PKK elements is ... an internal Turkish problem which they have to solve in a political manner, not militarily," said Mufti, who is also an aide to Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, also a Kurd.

Ankara is worried by what it sees as moves by Iraqi Kurds to build an independent state in northern Iraq, with the multi-ethnic city of Kirkuk as its capital, fearing this could reignite separatism among its own Kurdish population.

A referendum on the status of Kirkuk, which sits on some of Iraq's richest oil fields, is due by the end of 2007. Settling its final status is one of the most sensitive issues in Iraq.

Barzani and other Kurdish officials have repeatedly indicated that the issue of Kirkuk as a red line.

"The issue of Kirkuk is an internal Iraqi issue in which the Turks should not interfere," Mufti said. "We want good relations with Turkey ... but they cannot impose their opinion on another people that is outside their country's borders."

3. - Eurasianet - "Turkey: Punk Rockers Face Prison Time For Protest Song":

ISTANBUL / 13 April 2007 / by Nicholas Birch

Five Turkish punk rockers and their agent face up to 18 months in jail after a government official was offended by the lyrics of a song criticizing the country's unpopular university entrance exam.

Head of OSYM, Turkey's central examination board, Unal Yarimagan reportedly smiled when he first saw a clip of "OSYM, Kiss My Arse," by Deli (Mad), a group from the western city of Bursa.

"I'm a tolerant person, but that didn't stop me doing my duty and checking [that] it wasn't breaking any laws," he said. In March, an Ankara prosecutor said the lyrics could constitute an insult against a civil servant in the course of his duty. The trial is scheduled to open May 2.

"It's ridiculous," says lead singer and lyricist Cengiz Sari, 24. "I was 17 when I wrote that song. I was just your typical rebellious teenager. It shouldn't be a problem." He'll be a defendant in the case along with the rest of the band members, including drummer Resat Saral, who joined Deli late last year and has never played the offending song in public.

Turkish leaders of late have exhibited a marked sensitivity to criticism. Since March 2005, when he sued a cartoonist who portrayed him as a cat tangled in wool, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is believed to have earned at least 300,000 lira ($215,000) in damages from insult cases.

Turkey's quirky understanding of freedom of expression surfaced again last month when a judge ordered the popular website YouTube to be blocked after a Greek nationalist posted a video that included a defamatory allegation against the Turkish Republic's founder Kemal Ataturk.

YouTube has a central role to play in Deli's story, too. Until last June, few had heard of what was at the time little more than a student band. It was then that a 16-year old fan named Hako uploaded a clip of himself lip-synching his way through "OSYM."

"I worked day and night / to pass the exam / What's changed now / My future is unclear," Hako mouthed over a sound track reminiscent of the Sex Pistols. "So let me tell you something: / screw your exam system."

Posted days before 1.5 million Turkish teenagers took the university entrance exam, Hako became an overnight sensation. Within a week, nearly 300,000 people had gone on line to watch him. The song perfectly captured the brewing mood of student rebellion.

"I had the tune in my head throughout the test," one teenager commented on YouTube. Others said that Deli should represent Turkey at this year's Eurovision Song Contest.

The three-hour long test has faced criticism for years, in part because it is intensely competitive (Barely 20 percent of those taking the exam earn a university spot). In a country plagued by high youth unemployment, the future of those who do poorly on the test is grim. "The whole life of families revolves around the OSS for years before exam day," says sociologist Nilufer Narli. "It's a 'to be or not to be' question."

It's also a question of money. In the run up to the exam, high schools empty as final-year students flock to private tutors. Even small towns have several of these so-called "dershane," who try to attract customers with huge banners listing the names of successful students who passed through their classrooms the year before.

"Kids going to state schools in the poorer parts of the country are at a disadvantage as it is," says Zafer Akmar, editor of Leman, a satirical magazine. "The [tutors] just make things worse."

He and his colleagues at Leman have been off-beat critics of Turkey's educational system since long before Deli or Hako came onto the scene. After years spent handing out bikes to students with the lowest grades in high-school, they turned their attention in 2005 to the university entrance exam. "We were offering a scooter to the student who got the worst marks, but nobody called in to claim it," Akmar says. "I think they were too ashamed."

Though a flop, the scooter campaign did provide the spark last summer for another highly publicized protest against the exam: one university student's decision to retake it and try to get every question wrong. "It was the most difficult exam I'd ever taken," said Sefa Boyar, who spent three months preparing for his record-breaking attempt. He got one question right, but plans to take the exam again this year, with a group of friends this time.

Boyar thinks this wave of protest shows students are finally making their voices heard. The parliamentary opposition party is now promising to scrap the test if it comes to power in elections later this year.

The men of Deli doubt much will change. But they are sure of one thing: the song "OSYM" has made them famous. "We've already had half a dozen lawyers offering to represent us for free," says Mustafa Kirgul, the band's manager. "That is just as well, because we don't have any money."

That might just change when Deli's first album - minus "OSYM" - is released on April 14 by Kadikoy Muzik Yapim, an Istanbul-based alternative label. "It may not be EMI," Kirgul says, "but you can't get better publicity than this, can you?"

Editor’s Note: Nicolas Birch specializes in Turkey, Iran and the Middle East.

4. - The New Anatolian - "Police storm Nokta weekly":

ANKARA / 14 April 2007

Istanbul Police Friday searched the Nokta weekly, which published allegations that former force commanders were planning to stage a military coup against the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party government.

Nokta officials told ANKA that police stormed the weekly's office and seized the computers of reporters after a search.

Haluk Orgun, General Coordinator of Nokta Magazine, told reporters, "It is a routine search. Upon instruction of military prosecutor, Bakirkoy Prosecutor's office staff are investigating. I think it is not related with the last issue of the magazine."

The Turkish weekly Nokta, in a previous issue, published a diary allegedly belonging to retired Naval Forces Commander Adm. Ozden Ornek. According to a claim the diary said that the force commanders of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) were preparing to stage a military takeover, but it is claimed that retired Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, the chief of General Staff then, forestalled attempts.

Earlier this month, the Bakirkoy Chief Public Prosecutor's Office had already launched a probe into the allegations appeared on the previous edition of the weekly.

Retired Gen. Ornek promptly said that he has not written such diary.

Meanwhile, the editor in chief of Nokta weekly, Alper Gormus Thursday presented his written testimony to Bakirkoy Prosecutor's office. In his statement Gormus defended the magazine saying the story was a news article and they are carrying on their journalism duties.

Gormus who was accused of denigrating Turkish Armed Forces, denigrating former force commanders through coup allegations and thus attacking people's trust in Turkish Armed Forces, denied the claims saying "I had no intention of doing so. We only carry on our journalism duties."

Gormus also asked Prosecutor's office to dismiss the case.

Buyukanit's remarks

Turkish Chief of General Staff Gen. Yasar Buyukanit who organized a press conference on Thursday also touched on the Nokta's article avoiding to voice the name of the magazine. Buyukanit underlined that there are doubts on the truth of the article. "The editor in chief of the weekly, in an interview claimed that there are documents on this issue in the archive of the General Staff," he said.

On the diaries that are allegedly belong to former Navy Commander Adm. Ornek, Buyukanit stressed on that there had been no evidence within the General Staff’s archives confirming the existence of the diaries. "If there have been documents confirming the diary, then legal action could be taken, but there has been no document as such at the General Staff," he said, hinting that no legal action could be taken by the Office of the Chief of General Staff.

TGS condemns the police operation in Nokta

Executive Board of Turkish Journalists' Union (TGS) Friday condemned the police search in Nokta weekly claiming that is is an attack to press freedom. The union underlined that the investigation simply shows the pressure on press, saying, "Related laws protect journalists from compelling disclosure of their sources. This is an attempt to reveal journalists' sources and thus it is against the law."

5. - The New Anatolian - "ECHR fines Turkey to pay almost 100,000 euros":

ANKARA / 13 April 2007

The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) yesterday decided that there had been a violation of Article 3 (prohibition of inhuman or degrading treatment) of the European Convention on Human Rights on account of ill-treatment by the prison authorities and gendarmes in Buca Prison on 20 July 1995 and the ensuing inadequate investigation.

Under Article 41 of the Convention, the Court awarded the applicants 8,000 euros, each, that is to say a total of EUR 96,000, in respect of non-pecuniary damage and EUR 500, jointly, for costs and expenses.

The 12 applicants, Ahmet Guven, Ramazan Akdag, Kadri Sonmez, Metin Goktepe, Neslihan Goktepe, Izzettin Koc, Kadri Issi, Mehmet Kisanak, Ridvan Karatay, Ali Kemal Yildiz, Yasar Avci and Emsihan Karatay, are Turkish nationals who were all detained in Buca Prison (Izmir) at the time of the events.

On 20 July 1995 the applicants, along with ten other prisoners, were taken from their cells to an area of Buca Prison in which they were held before being taken to a hearing at Izmir State Security Court. On refusing to be searched, the applicants alleged that they were attacked by prison administrators, prison warders and gendarmes with truncheons and wooden planks. According to the Government, the applicants had, in order to resist being searched, linked arms, and, as a result, had fallen down some stairs and been injured.

At the hearing before the state security court, the applicants complained that they had been beaten before being brought to the court. Noting the applicants' condition, the court decided to postpone the proceedings and ordered that they be medically examined with a view to opening an investigation.

Between July and November 1995 doctors examined the applicants and noted in their medical reports that it appeared from the injuries sustained (swelling, red marks, grazes and bruising) that, in most cases, they had received blows to the head and other parts of their body. Yasar Avci's injuries resulted in him being hospitalized. It also appeared from further medical reports that Ahmet Guven, who took part in several hunger strikes, suffered from hypertension and amnesia. He was, however, declared physically capable of taking care of himself in prison.

On 9 April 1996 it was decided that the Director of Buca Prison and his staff would not be prosecuted for alleged ill-treatment.

On May 1, 2000 Izmir Administrative Council also decided not to bring proceedings against the gendarmes who had been responsible for taking the applicants to court.
Further proceedings concerning the disappearance of the case-file investigating the gendarmes' involvement in the events were terminated on 15 January 2002 without prosecution on account of the statutory time-limit having expired.

The applicants alleged that they were ill-treated by the prison authorities and gendarmes in Buca Prison on 20 July 1995 and complained that they were not informed by the national authorities about the outcome of the investigation into their allegations. Mr. Guven further complained about his continued detention despite his medical condition. They relied on Articles 2 (right to life), 3 (prohibition of inhuman or degrading treatment), 13 (right to an effective remedy) and Article 34 (right of individual petition).

The Court considered that the applicants' complaints under Articles 2, 3 and 13 should be examined from the standpoint of Article 3 alone.

The Court found that there had not been any difference between the applicants' case and Satik and Others in which the authorities' lack of a plausible explanation as to how the applicants had sustained their injuries led the Court to conclude that they had been beaten and injured as alleged. In Satik and Others the Court was of the opinion that the investigation into the incident had serious shortcomings, notably the missing case-file and the refusal, having taken four years to decide, to bring criminal proceedings against the gendarmes. The Court consequently also found in the applicants' case that the State had not carried out its duty to investigate an arguable claim of serious ill-treatment. The Court therefore held in the applicants' case that there had been a violation of Article 3 on account of the ill-treatment and the inadequate investigation.

The Court further held that, Ahmet Guven's situation not having attained a sufficient level of severity to fall within the scope of Article 3, his complaint concerning his continued detention had to be rejected.

6. - PanArmenian.Net - "Turkey in a tight corner, not mentioning the presidential elections":

13 April 2007

The more Ankara speaks against the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, the more countries and organizations are interested in real facts.

Most likely Turkey is being through one of its hardest times. Exacerbations of the situation with Kurds on the border with Northern Iraq and presidential elections to be held on April 22 are very untimely for Turkey to face, taking into account that at present Turkey has to find methods of fighting against passing Resolution N 106 about the recognition of the Armenian Genocide too. In the issue of the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, Turkish government seems to be ready to use any means to prevent not only the recognition of the Genocide but also its mentioning at all.

The story of closing the exhibition in UN, which was dedicated to the Genocide in Rwanda, became a disgrace not only for Turkey or UN itself but a slap on the face of the whole civilized world too. “Turkish government’s attempts to conceal the history from own nation wasn’t enough. At present campaigns against the recognition of the Genocide has gone so far, that the initiative of opening an exhibition on Genocide with the title: “Lessons Learned in Rwanda” is being considered,” announced the Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vartan Oskanyan regarding the postponement of the dates of the exhibition dedicated to the Genocide in Rwanda, which was to be organized in UN headquarters.

One may only guess what brought the Organization to this decision, but the fact that UN backs out more and more of its principles adopted in 1945, is beyond doubts. The world has certainly changed in 60 years, but not so much as to obey the country having perpetrated a massacre.

The nuance Turkey fails to notice is that the more it speaks against the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, the more countries and organizations are interested in real facts. Consequently, the truth which the Turkish government is trying to deny so persistently is being revealed by the actions of the same government. Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which spends great sum of money for campaigning against the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, hardly expects such results.

As for Kurdish issue, here Turkey is in a much more difficult situation. No matter how stubbornly Turkey tries to prove that Kurds are "terrorists and separatists", and possibly there is some truth in these qualifications, the Kurdish Labor Party indeed can make troubles for the Turkish government.

On April 9 Turkey sent a note to Iraqi authorities, which called to take decisive measures to resist Kurdish Labor Party and recognize it as a terrorist organization. “Turkey is about to lose its patience for the increasing number of attacks organized by the Party militants, having their bases in Northern Iraq. If the Iraqi authorities do not take decisive steps to counteract terror, Turkey may apply to the rights given to Turkey by the international law regarding terror response,” was mentioned in the note.

The leader of the Iraqi Kurds Masud Barzani promised in answer, that if the Turkish Army launches an operation in Northern Iraq, his militants will start work actively in Turkey’s territory. In answer to this threat Turkish Prime-Minister Erdoghan advised Barzani “to be more careful with his words and not to utter words which will later be difficult to be responsible for.”

Abdullah Gul in its turn made a phone call to Condoleezza Rice and called the US Secretary of State to condemn Barzani’s announcement. It is not very difficult to guess how all this will end; Turkey will enter Northern Iraq with the excuse of finding and annihilating terrorists, Kurds will start organizing explosions in Turkish towns, particularly in Istanbul and Ankara, and plane hijackings will be organized just as it happened the other day. In short the whole story has a 30-year-old history, and doesn’t seem to be coming to an end.

Turkey will never give away the territory under the control of Kurdish autonomy, though it can be fulfilled by Iraq with the assistance of Iran, and just another unrecognized state of “Iranian Kurdistan”, which will have its share of tension in the already troubled region, will appear on the world map.

As for Turkey itself, it will be used as a tool in the realization of these plans.

7. - Khaalej Times - "Turkey’s secular system in great danger: Sezer":

ISTANBUL / 13 April 2007

Turkey’s president said on Friday that the country’s secular system of government faced its gravest danger since the founding of the republic in 1923.

The stark warning from Ahmet Necdet Sezer, ahead of elections next month that could give Turkey its first head of state with Islamist roots, came on the heels of similar remarks by the powerful army chief on Thursday.

“The political regime of Turkey has not faced such a danger since the founding of the republic,” Sezer told the War Academy.

“The activities aimed against the secular order and efforts to bring religion into politics are raising social tensions,” he added.

Turkey’s secular elite, including generals and judges, are worried that Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, a former Islamist, will take the top job and chip away at the strict division between state and religion established by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

Erdogan’s ruling AK Party is expected to name its candidate for president next Wednesday. Since the party has a big majority in parliament, its candidate is virtually certain to replace the staunchly secularist Sezer, whose term expires on May 16.

Erdogan, Turkey’s most popular politician who has presided over strong economic growth and the launch of European Union entry talks, denies claims that he has an Islamist agenda.

He has not confirmed whether he will run. But faced with an increasing number of AK Party members saying they want Erdogan as president, secularists will hold a mass protest rally on Saturday against him standing for the job.

Financial markets are increasingly nervous about the elections, though they largely shrugged off Sezer’s remarks. Shares on the Istanbul stock exchange briefly trimmed their gains before rebounding.

The head of the powerful military, General Yasar Buyukanit, issued a veiled warning to the ruling AK Party on Thursday, saying the next head of state should be a faithful follower of the established secular order.

The military views itself as the ultimate defender of Turkey’s secular order founded by Ataturk and has ousted four governments from power in the past half century.

8. - The Conservative Voice - "Turkey Has Three Options on Kirkuk":

13 April 2007 / by Scott Sullivan

The signals are clear. Iran has cut a deal with the Iraqi Kurds at Turkey’s expense. The US is supportive as part of its cooperation with Ahmadinejad in Iraq. As a result, Barzani and Talabani will annex Kirkuk and all of northern Iraq by staging the 15 November referendum on the status of Kirkuk. Meanwhile, Iran will take Basra and southern Iraq.

This Iraq partition scenario is a disaster for Turkey, which would become Iran’s next target. Turkey has only three options to avoid defeat.

To begin, Iran’s collaboration with the Kurds against Turkey is a matter of record. A quick tour of Iran’s official Irna.com website shows twenty seven Iranian statements referring to northern Iraq as “Kurdistan” since March of 2006 (Turkey is at war with this designation of northern Iraq.) Iran has opened three Consulates in Iraq, two of which are in “Kurdistan.” Iran’s third Consulate is in Basra in southern Iraq, which is now under Iranian control. Iran has signed numerous bilateral agreements with “Kurdistan,” including military cooperation agreements. Finally, Iran has sent high ranking officials of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and the Quds Force to meet with Barzani and Talabani to discuss Kurdish-Iranian military cooperation. In fact, the final details of the Kurdish-Iranian partition of Iraq may be under negotiation in these meetings.

In short, the Kurdish-Iranian offensive to take Kirkuk from Iraq is in high gear, unopposed by the US. What can Turkey do to prevent defeat at the hands of the Kurds and Iran? Again, Turkey has three options.

Option one consists of Turkish hit and run raid against the PKK in northern Iraq. Turkish military leaders are already signaling Turkey’s intention to conduct such raids. However, this option is undesirable for Turkey because it brings substantial negative consequences in the form of international disapproval with no Turkish gains, aside from a temporary disruption of PKK activities.

Option two is for Turkey to establish a military presence in Kirkuk and Basra. Turkey can do this by using its own forces, as recommended by Iran-Watch.com (March 07). As an alternative, Turkey can approach the US about sending Turkish peacekeeping forces to Kirkuk and Basra. Option Two produces an outcome acceptable to Turkey because it would do the most of all three options to deter Kurdish and Iranian hegemony in the region.

Option three is for Turkey to build a consensus in Iraq and the region to postpone the Kirkuk referendum. Option Three is by far the easiest option to implement for Turkey. The outcome is acceptable to Turkey because it would prevent Iraq’s partition by the Kurds and Iran. Moreover, Option three has the advantage of commanding support in the US, where the Baker-Hamilton Commission and Senator John McCain have all recommended postponing Kirkuk’s referendum. In fact, no one, aside from Barzani, Talabani, and Ahmadinejad, is in favor of holding the Kirkuk referendum this year.

In conclusion, by choosing either option two or three Turkey would be in a strong position to protect its own security and the security of the region. Turkey would have the support of every state in the region, aside from Iran. Furthermore, while protecting Kirkuk and Iraq, Turkey would isolate Iran. The Kurds would lose their main ally, Iran. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, Barzani, and Talabani could then sit down to discuss mutually advantageous terms for cooperation, without Iranian interference. In other words, options two and three, unlike the first option, bring a happy ending for all but Ahmadinejad’s Iran. Perfect!