5 January 2006

1. "Kurdish problem undergoing transformation", the Kurdish problem will continue to dominate the agenda in 2006. This problem is transforming itself at an increasing pace and becoming a regional matter. We are still not aware of what’s happening. Have we solved the PKK and the Roj TV issues, which we believe we will resolve the Kurdish problem?

2. "The Turkish military and the EU", the question of where the Turkish Armed Forces stand in terms of Turkey’s EU bid remains an open one. Former Chief of General Staff Gen. Huseyin Kivrikoglu had said EU membership was a 'geostrategic necessity' for Turkey. One would think, therefore, that this remark settles the question.

3. "Turkey faces tough EU demands", Turkey’s ruling AK party must balance demands from the European Union for more reforms in 2006 with growing unease among both ordinary voters and officials about the price of EU membership.

4. "In Turkey “Happy New Year” greetings in Kurdish make the headlines", in Turkey “Happy New Year” greetings in Kurdish language make the headlines by the leading media outlets.

5. "Gul Announces Renewed Cooperation with the US", a new stage of collaboration with the United States takes effect in the fight against the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), said Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul.

6. "Turkey Moves Closer To Iraqi Kurds", the commander in chief of Turkey's Armed Forces, General Hilmi Ozkok, recently summarized Turkey's new policy when he said the country needed to adapt to what he called the "changing conditions" in Iraq. Independent Kurdish politicians from Turkey believes that the Iraqi Kurds can play an important role in helping mediate a lasting truce between Turkey and the PKK. Many Kurdish politicians in Turkey argues that the best way to solve the PKK problem is for the government to issue an amnesty for PKK fighters. In October, Turkey's national intelligence chief, Emre Taner, traveled to Iraqi Kurdistan to meet with KDP leader Massoud Barzani. They are widely reported to have discussed possible joint measures to address the PKK problem. But hawks within Turkey's security establishment continue to favor military action against the rebels. Because more than two decades of fighting has failed to extinguish the PKK. Alternative means need to be explored if Turkey is to solve its Kurdish problem.

1. - Hurriyet - "Kurdish problem undergoing transformation":

The Kurdish problem will continue to dominate the agenda in 2006. This problem is transforming itself at an increasing pace and becoming a regional matter. We are still not aware of what’s happening. Have we solved the PKK and the Roj TV issues, which we believe we will resolve the Kurdish problem?

5 January 2006 / by Mehmet Ali Birand

The Kurdish problem will be one of the most talked-about matters of 2006; however, this time our discussions will be quite different.

For us, the Kurdish problem is based on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the closure of Roj TV. The public and especially our media are not aware of the extent of the matter and how it's developing. We still look at the problem from a very narrow perspective. Our view and stance are very shallow.

For example, even at the cost of deceiving ourselves, we ignore the Southeast, where Kurds are in the majority and are ruled by Kurdish mayors. We fail to see that the influence of local leaders and the Democratic Society Party (DTP) is increasing significantly.

We turn a blind eye to the fact that the problem is growing beyond the borders of Turkey. Actually, the Kurdish problem is no longer localized but is instead a regional problem. The roles the leaders have played have changed. In the past, there was a war with Abdullah Öcalan in the forefront. Now there is a political fight led by Massoud Barzani. The balances and developments in Turkey are also changing.

The most important matter in this context is what Turkey will do in 2006.

What kind of stance will Ankara adopt?

Will the path proposed by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan through more democracy be taken? This will result in policies that will lead to Kurdish broadcasts and education.

Or will the stance taken by conservative groups and the security forces be accepted? In other words, will the Kurds be prevented from getting involved in politics?

We should also look at the other side of the coin.

What will the Kurds do?

The decision taken by the PKK will be very important and will influence the stance of the Republic of Turkey. Will the PKK continue its armed struggle or will it be able to renounce it? Due to the confusion that reigns in the PKK, it's very hard to find the answer to this question.

There is also a question about the DTP:

Will they be effective and make the PKK listen to them? Will the DTP and the PKK be dominant in the decision-making of the future? Which group will be dominated by the other?

There is also the unknown about the future of northern Iraqi Kurdistan. Will they push for independence or continue to play the waiting game?

Let's not forget the fact that northern Iraqi Kurdistan is beginning to be seen as a center of attraction by Turkish citizens of Kurdish extraction. All signals show that Barzani is increasing his influence and is moving towards becoming the leader of all the Kurds.

We face a problem that involves all these questions.

Don't fill your passports needlessly:

Yazgülü Aldogan noted this matter in the past, but I would like to emphasize it and support her recommendation.

The matter involves 16 pages in our passports that are full of information and customs and currency registrations, none of which we can understand.

I would really like to know what information they are trying to give us.

The customs and currency registrations are even more interesting.

In the past, coming and going overseas was a problem itself. It was a crime to take foreign currency outside of the country; however, you were allowed to enter the country with foreign currency that was registered in your passport. Another huge problem was taking personal items overseas. For example, if you left the country with a leopard skin coat, it would be registered in your passport and would be erased on your return. The pages on customs and currency registration were used for this purpose.

However, nowadays, there's no need for these pages. None of them are used.

So why do we still have them? Is it just in case we need them in the future?

Turkish citizens encounter so many visa problems that once their passports are filled with so much needless pages, there is no room left for visas.

Does the Interior Ministry need a study concerning this matter?

EU also objected to Article 301:

One question we all hear these days is: “We changed the penal code's controversial Article 301 just to please the European Union and to harmonize with the Copenhagen criteria. Now the EU is complaining about the same article. Isn't this ridiculous?”

This is a very valid question.

Turkey changed Article 159 of the former penal code to harmonize with the Copenhagen criteria.

However, while changing it something went terribly wrong.

I talked with the bureaucrats responsible for the changes.

This is exactly what they said: “While working on the changes, we didn't send our proposals to the EU; however, we knew what needed to be done. This was also the case for Article 159. It was changed and sent to Parliament. Its text was clear and concise. However, everyone introduced changes to it during discussions on the article at the parliamentary commission. The Interior Ministry, the military and the Justice Ministry played with the article so much so that they made it unintelligible.”

What's more interesting is the fact that the EU sent a friendly warning to Turkey after the bill was passed, noting that such a confusing text could cause problems.

However, no one listened.

And now we have the current state of affairs.

2. - Turkish Daily News - "The Turkish military and the EU":

The question of where the Turkish Armed Forces stand in terms of Turkey’s EU bid remains an open one. Former Chief of General Staff Gen. Huseyin Kivrikoglu had said EU membership was a 'geostrategic necessity' for Turkey. One would think, therefore, that this remark settles the question.

5 January 2006 / by Semih Idiz

The question of where the Turkish Armed Forces stand in terms of Turkey's EU bid remains an open one. Former Chief of General Staff Gen. Huseyin Kivrikoglu had said EU membership was a “geostrategic necessity” for Turkey. One would think, therefore, that this remark settles the question.

Not so, however. Various statements from the military have shown a certain ambivalence on this score. On the basis of these statements, the General Staff appears to be saying that while it supports the EU dimension, Europe has to somehow consider Turkey's special position and act more leniently when demanding certain things from Ankara.

Put another way, it is not clear whether the military is trying to say that while it supports EU membership, this should be on Ankara's terms because of the special circumstances prevailing in this country.

This, however, appears unlikely as the EU says it cannot cater to individual candidate countries in this way when it comes to its key political and social tenets. The EU is basically saying here that the General Staff should tone down its position vis-à-vis Turkish politics, take a back seat to the Ministry of Defense and stop interfering in matters that in Europe do not fall within the domain of the military's normal concerns.

In other words, there are no special favors for Turkey so that it can maintain business as usual in terms of the position the military plays in society. This amounts to saying Turkey can take it or leave it as far as its EU bid is concerned.

This is the point at which the General Staff's quandary begins. The basic question for Turkey's top brass to answer appears to be a simple one: Will Turkey benefit or lose out if it were to give up on its EU perspective on the grounds that some of the demands made by Europe are simply not possible to meet under the prevailing paradigms that govern the country.

An article in the latest edition of the prestigious magazine Foreign Affairs seems to go some way in answering this question. The article, titled “The Turkish Military's March Towards Europe,” was penned by Ersel Aydinli, a visiting assistant professor at George Washington University (on leave from Bilkent University), Nihat Ali Özcan, a retired major from the Turkish Armed Forces, and Dogan Akyaz, who is a major in the armed forces.

In other words it could not have been written without the knowledge of the General Staff. Given this simple fact, some of the passages in the article take on an added significance. Take this passage for example:

“None of the reforms the EU still requires of the Turkish government can be achieved without the military's backing. … The Turkish General Staff has largely complied with the EU's demands, even though doing so has forced it to let go of power it had felt necessary to build up and carefully guard for decades. … Turkey's generals have adapted because they see EU membership as the final stage of a modernization process they have supported for nearly a century.”

Or this passage:

“Like the civilian authorities, the Turkish military supported EU membership. Not only would accession be the crowning achievement of Turkey's modernization, but the process leading to it would also offer a way to respond to several challenges facing the country. It was not one of many grand strategies but rather the best choice on an extremely short list of imperfect options. In fact, for the Turkish military, the only true alternative to seeking EU membership was to confront these challenges alone -- an unsavory proposition that might have led to failure or, at best, reversals of the country's impressive social, economic, and political progress."

Or this passage:

“(By) 1999, the Turkish military was growing weary and discouraged by its inability to eradicate, after decades of efforts, various internal threats, such as Kurdish separatism, Marxist activism, radical Islamism and ultra-nationalism. Its attempts had not only exhausted the Turkish military but also began to endanger its institutional integrity. As a result, by the end of the 1990s, the TGS was growing more ready to consider civilian responses to these threats.”

Or this passage:

“The military's decision to address all these concerns through the EU membership process was the consequence of a simple cost-benefit analysis: The costs of tackling these major problems alone seemed to surpass those of meeting European demands, even though compliance would inevitably transform the Turkish Armed Forces.”

And finally this passage, which perhaps is the most interesting of all:

“The Turkish military has repeatedly redefined Kemalism to synchronize itself with -- or, if necessary, to counterbalance -- its environment. If the EU process reaches a level at which the military no longer feels the need to preserve the ideology in its current form in order to meet Turkey's security challenges, the General Staff will redefine Kemalism again.”

These are views that come from within the military establishment in Turkey. Given this fact, it is clear from this article, which is well worth reading in its entirety, that the Turkish Armed Forces are also in a process of a transformation aimed at meeting EU demands, even if they find it hard to comply with some of these demands.

Put another way the military appears to be saying that is not trying to prevent Turkey's EU process, that it believes in this process fully, but that in order abandon itself fully to this process Europe has to be much more honest about Turkey's membership prospects.

On the other hand we still get those statements from the military from time to time, which appears to suggest that it is in fact of two minds on this score.

The bottom line here is perhaps that the Turkish Armed Forces are also undergoing a process of change that is not always easy to swallow but that, despite its concerns, they will go along with the EU dimension because in the end they really see no viable alternative to this for Turkey.

3. - Reuters - "Turkey faces tough EU demands":

ANKARA / 5 January 2006 / by Gareth Jones

Turkey’s ruling AK party must balance demands from the European Union for more reforms in 2006 with growing unease among both ordinary voters and officials about the price of EU membership.

Barely three months after the historic launch of Ankara’s entry talks, an opinion poll has shown Turks’ support for the EU has slipped to 55% from more than 70%, amid fears the wealthy bloc does not really want the large Muslim country.

Brussels is pressing Turkey to move towards normalising ties in 2006 with EU member Cyprus, a country Ankara refuses to recognise without a final peace settlement for the island.

The EU also wants Turkey to amend Article 301 of its penal code which has allowed nationalist prosecutors, much to the government’s discomfort, to put best-selling novelist Orhan Pamuk and scores of other writers and academics on trial for insulting “Turkishness” or state institutions.

Ankara is putting a brave face on the criticism and says it is confident of making good progress in its EU talks this year.

“We will see ... more steps for turning Turkey into a more democratic country with the supremacy of law. We will continue on the EU track,” Egeman Bagis, a ruling party lawmaker and adviser to Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, said.

“What we did so far was to put the Turkey train onto its tracks (by starting the EU negotiations). Detraction would now be very harmful both for the wagons and for the tracks.”

The centre-right AK government has presided over impressive economic growth, falling inflation and a surge in foreign investment, helped by IMF loans and the start of EU talks, since sweeping to power in 2002 on the heels of a financial crisis.

But diplomats and political analysts say Erdogan seems to have lost some of his appetite for both reforms and the EU.

They point to the harm the Pamuk trial is doing to Turkey’s image among Europeans already sceptical about admitting the relatively poor country of 72mn people and say the government should do much more to defend freedom of expression.

“The Turks need to ask themselves what they should be doing to get people on their side, to win friends in the EU so that when the going gets really tough, they have allies other than Blair and Berlusconi to turn to,” said one senior EU diplomat.

Britain’s Tony Blair and Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi are the firmest supporters of Turkey’s EU bid.

France and Germany, the other big powers, are much less keen and Britain has just handed the EU’s rotating presidency to Austria, which is against Turkey joining.

Apart from the Pamuk case, critics also point to efforts by AK-run local councils to curb alcohol consumption and to Erdogan’s criticism of a European Court of Human Rights ruling backing Turkey’s ban on women’s headscarves in universities.

Such developments have stirred fears among EU diplomats and Turkish liberals alike that Erdogan, whose political roots are in political Islam, wants to erode Turkey’s secular system of government – fears he and his party strongly reject.

“The problem is that domestic political considerations are coming to the fore now because of the electoral cycle,” said Cengiz Aktar, an EU expert at Istanbul’s Bahcesehir University.

Turkey faces parliamentary elections in 2007, though some commentators think Erdogan may call snap polls this year.

“The question is how much this domestic agenda will affect the EU perspective. I don’t think it will help,” Aktar said.

4. - Kurdish Media - "In Turkey “Happy New Year” greetings in Kurdish make the headlines":

LONDON / 5 January 2006

In Turkey “Happy New Year” greetings in Kurdish language make the headlines by the leading media outlets.

“Baydemir wishes a happy new year in Kurdish,” was the headline of Turkish Daily news on Thursday.

Diyarbakir Mayor and Democratic Society Party (DTP) member Osman Baydemir sent all deputies and all top state officials a New Year's card in Kurdish, the Turkish Daily news stated.

The paper goes on to state: “The card, which said ‘Sersala We Piroz Be’ ("Happy New Year" in Kurdish) was sent to President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, Parliament Speaker Bülent Arinç and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The card said every New Year was a new beginning and wished new beginnings to be scattered with peace, brotherhood, love and tolerance.”

Third of Turkey’s population is Kurdish, which may mount to over 25 million people. Kurdish language and culture have been banned. Recently under the EU’s pressure some cosmetic changes have been made by the authorities.

5. - Zaman - "Gul Announces Renewed Cooperation with the US":

4 January 2006

A new stage of collaboration with the United States takes effect in the fight against the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), said Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul.

The US failed to meet Turkey’s expectations of obliterating the PKK from northern Iraq, Gul told CNN-Turk, a Turkish news broadcaster, because the US Armed Forces fell short of providing themselves with full security precautions in Iraq.

Turkish Foreign Minister underlined a number of different methods for launching the fight against 'terrorism'; “A new stage of collaboration with the US is underway.”

Recent visits by senior US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization officials have nothing to do with Iran or Syria, this kind of news is completely fictitious, Gul said. “There is no truth to the rumors that the US demands a military base from Turkey.”

The minister spoke about the current course of relations with the European Union as well, and said actual negotiations are expected to begin in the first half of this year.

6. - Voice of America - "Turkey Moves Closer To Iraqi Kurds":

3 January 2006 / by Amberin Zaman

In December a private Turkish airline began flying between Istanbul and Irbil, the capital of Iraq's Kurdish-controlled northern region. Company officials say booming business between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds propelled their decision to become the first Turkish airline company to connect Turkey to Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Amberin Zaman reports from Ankara on the increasingly cordial relationship between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds.

The commander in chief of Turkey's Armed Forces, General Hilmi Ozkok, recently summarized Turkey's new policy when he said the country needed to adapt to what he called the "changing conditions" in Iraq.

Until recently it would not have been surprising for General Ozkok's colleagues in the military to threaten an invasion of northern Iraq if the Kurds were to seek to establish their own state.

But Iraq's newly approved constitution creates a federal model that gives the Kurds greater autonomy than they have ever enjoyed.

Safeen Dizayee is in charge of foreign relations for the largest Kurdish faction in northern Iraq, the Kurdistan Democratic Party called KDP for short. Mr. Dizayee recently told VOA that Turkey has come to accept that the federal model has been embraced not only by the Kurds, but by most Iraqis and has revised its policies accordingly.

"Recently as you know the referendum on the constitution was passed where there is a constitution [sic] within that constitution it gives legal status for the situation of Kurdistan, for self rule, self administration of the Kurds and this is recognized by the Iraqi people and also per the United Nations program it is documented and has gained recognition by Iraqi people, by the national assembly therefore we feel there is much more of an understanding by Turkey that the will of the Iraqi people is being respected and the pragmatic position and the approach of the ruling party, the A.K. party seems to be more positive," he said.

Before the U.S.-led coalition toppled Saddam Hussein's regime, U.S. and British warplanes that patrolled a no-fly zone over the Kurdish region to protect it from possible attack by Hussein's forces were based in Turkey. Under allied air cover, the Kurds created their own de-facto state that many Turks fear will become a magnet for Turkey's estimated 14 million Kurds.

Mr. Dizayee says that one way of helping to overcome that suspicion is to promote trade.

"The volume of trade between Turkey and Kurdistan has increased especially in the construction sector," he explained. "There is a huge demand and most of the companies functioning in Kurdistan are Turkish companies. There are almost $1 billion worth of contracts [that] have been awarded to Turkish companies and that is excluding household goods, electrical goods and foodstuff which is also coming from Turkey."

About 5,000 Kurdish rebels that had been fighting the Turkish army since 1984 retain mountain bases in northern Iraq. After a five-year lull, the group known as the PKK has resumed attacks against government forces in predominantly Kurdish southeast Turkey.

Hasim Hasimi is an independent Kurdish politician from Turkey. He believes that the Iraqi Kurds can play an important role in helping mediate a lasting truce between Turkey and the PKK.

Like many Kurdish politicians in Turkey, Mr. Hasim argues that the best way to solve the PKK problem is for the government to issue an amnesty for PKK fighters.

In October, Turkey's national intelligence chief, Emre Taner, traveled to Iraqi Kurdistan to meet with KDP leader Massoud Barzani. They are widely reported to have discussed possible joint measures to address the PKK problem. But hawks within Turkey's security establishment continue to favor military action against the rebels.

Mr. Hasim counters that more than two decades of fighting has failed to extinguish the PKK. He says that alternative means need to be explored if Turkey is to solve its Kurdish problem.