Untitled Document

17 March 2003

1. "Abdullah Ocalan: I do not give up the truth"

2. "Turkey Delays Reconsideration of Access Sought by U.S. Troops", any new vote in the Turkish Parliament about the deployment of American troops in Turkey would probably not come for more than a week, according to comments by the new prime minister that the state-run news agency reported today.

3. "All signs point to Turkey entering the fray", under almost any other circumstances, the fresh election to Parliament of Justice and Development Party (AKP) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan as MP for the province of Siirt would have been seen as an extremely significant event.

4. "Bush Warns Turkey Against Unilateral Action in Northern Iraq", U.S. President George W. Bush has warned Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that unilateral Turkish intervention in northern Iraq might lead to confrontation between Turkish and U.S. troops, the Milliyet newspaper reported Sunday as quoted by AFP.

5. "U.S. shifts strategy in Turkey", in an effort to protect U.S. troops, the Bush Administration is shifting its focus from seeking Turkey's help in a war against Saddam Hussein to containing Turkey's ambitions in northern Iraq.

6. "Turkey's stability falls amid build-up to war", concerns about geopolitical risk have continued to build over the past month ahead of a likely war in Iraq.

7. "Turkey's Decisive Hour", this could have been Turkey's proudest moment. The stars and planets had come together to present Turkey with a golden opportunity to resolve its financial, its geopolitical and its great regional problems, all in the same brief moment of time.

8. "An electoral upset in Cyprus", there are fears that President Glafkos Clerides' defeat in the presidential election in Cyprus may affect the negotiations for the reunification of the divided island.

1. - Kurdish Observer - "Abdullah Ocalan: "I do not give up the truth":

KADEK President Abdullah Ocalan said, "I have shown what the truth is, nobody can make me stop even if everybody is opposed." The leader of the Kurdish people stated that he had been struggling for 45 years to demonstrate the realities. "Real heroism is deeping in freedom. I will be turn out to be in the right by history," he said.

MHA/ FRANKFURT / 15 March 2003

KADEK President Abdullah Ocalan who had been allowed to see his lawyers and family members for nearly four months and was being under solitary confinement said that the pressure on him had to do with the National Security Council (MGK). The leader emphasized that the total isolation aimed to restrict and make him shrink. "My position is a special one. It seems that the Gul government has decided it only for me," said Ocalan.

Ocalan pointed out that the solitary confinement is a counter charge against his views on the Free Spring Drive he had mentioned in his last meeting with hes lawyers, saying the following: "It should be known that I will not launch a war from here. It is not legally possible and I will not do it politicaly and militarily." The KADEK President underscored that there was no rough repression but they wanted to warn him in this way. "My position continues to be same from the point I has been captured. If the state and groups who said they were democratic understood it well, the process would not be like this. Even if I cannot receive sound information, I can preserve my capacity to judge even if 50 years pass. The problem is the one that belongs to the state and to those who are engaged in politics. The involved parts should be sensitive on the matter. But the fact that you come here finally might be considered a new beginning," said Ocalan.

The Kurdish leader stressed that the solitary confinement caused tension and therefore it was important for the people to show their democratic reactions. It was not right for the AKP government to display an adverse approach while there were expectations it to take positive steps, said he.

Letter to Prime Minister Abdullah Gul

Ocalan stated that he sent a letter containing 16 pages to Prime Minister Abdullah Gul on November 30, saying that it had a call to peace and dialogue but had not yet received a reply. "I wrote that nothing would be the same. But legitimate right to defence would be enjoyed. I wrote, if they take a step I will play my role in my capacity to influence. Other wise there might be a risk of armed confrontations with an army of 10 thousand people. It is not a threat. It is not what I prefer. I have undertook the responsibility of the August 15 attack but this time it will not be my responsibility. The historical consequences will be on the government's shoulder. I asked, 'Can you be even like Sharon?'. Even Sharon says no to violence. But Erdogan turns tens somersaults for a simple problem like the Cyprus whereas the Kurdish question amounts to ten Cypruses."

"I'm amazed at those who rule Turkey"

Drawing attention that he did not make cheap Kurdism, the President stated the denial of Kurds had made Turkey weak. "Even Abdulhamit prevented the empire from being disintegrated by claim Kurds. Yavuz made it a big empire only by claiming Kurds. Mustafa Kemal could establish the republic only by claiming Kurds. Today too Turkey can develop only by claiming Kurds, it can be a force in the Middle East. I'm amazed at those who rule Turkey, why do they see it?" said Ocalan. "Some say that Apo should not speak. My talking is good for Turkey. I have not been able to express my views at the court clearly. Because there was conspiracy. Like it or not I restricted myself. I had to expose the play. But now I am talking. I do not give up what I see as true, nobody can make me stop even if everybody is opposed. I have shown what the truth is"

"I am deepening concepts of freedom and democracy"

KADEK President Ocalan pointed out that he valued all peoples living in these lands without discriminating Kurds, turk, Arabs, Circassians or Armenians and beliefs but he was not understood sufficiently, attracting attention to the following points: "This land has a freedom problem. It is clear that I do not like tyrannous oligarchy, Kurdish collaborationism. There are things to be done. But for a thing to be done first it must be understood. Doing a thing without knowing its meaning completely is porterage. And a porter can only get a pitiful money. Youth does not understand me, they are like porters. Turkey does not understand me, it makes things for itself more difficult. Understand! If you like kill me, if you like isolate me. But understand! Because you do not understand, you make things for you more difficult."

Ocalan underscored that on Imrali he had deepened the concepts of freedom and democracy and his works would be understood in the future. "In my defence statement I have defended Mesopotamia against the Western culture. English policy is to play both ends against the middle. I have analysed the policy and developed my position against it. Real heroism is deeping in freedom. I have done what is the ultimate truth. That I have done it right might be understood well in the future. I will be turn out to be in the right by history. What I have done is not to deepen the conflict. Have I abandoned the freedom. No. On the contrary I have deepened the concepts of freedom and democracy."

Neither USA nor Saddam

The President also commended on the possible war, emphasizing that neither USA nor Saddam would be succesful in Iraq. Calling attention that at such critical times forces of democracy could scold, Ocalan reminded that the democratic line had a tremendous opportunity to be succesful. In case that the Kurdish question was attempted to be solved by nationalistic means there would be a conflict between Turks and Kurds lasting at least a century, said he. "I expressed it three or four years ago. A nationalistic conflict would cause the Kurdish question to remain without being solved for a century. There would be a bloodshed."

"Women are the guarantee of the victory of democracy"

The leader of Kurds stated that actions of the women against the solitary confinement were of extreme importance and that he continued to think on the subject of women's liberation. "I present my devotion and passion to women. I have analyzed the repression on women older than the history of civilization. I thank all those who make efforts for me and send them my greetings and love. Women are the guarantee of the victory of democracy," said Ocalan

"Newroz is the spring of the peoples"

KADEK President Abdullah Ocalan also made a statement on behalf of the Newroz on March 21, congratulating the festival of the Kurdish people and peoples of the Middle East. The President said that Newroz is the spring of the peoples of the Middle East. Ocalan continued with words to the effect: "Just as 1850s were the spring of European peoples, so 200s will be the spring of the all peoples in the Middle East including the Kurdish people. I greet all of them wishing they are hand-in-hand not on the grounds of nationalism but democracy with all my feelings of brotherhood."

2. - The New York Times - "Turkey Delays Reconsideration of Access Sought by U.S. Troops":

ISTANBUL / 16 March 2003 / by Frank Bruni

Any new vote in the Turkish Parliament about the deployment of American troops in Turkey would probably not come for more than a week, according to comments by the new prime minister that the state-run news agency reported today.

That development seemed to scuttle United States hopes for imminent approval, and an American official familiar with the negotiations between the Bush administration and Turkey said today that the United States military was now making plans for a possible invasion of Iraq that did not involve Turkish territory.

"We have to operate under the assumption that Turkey will not give full participation," said the official.

The official added that the United States promise of at least $6 billion in new aid for Turkey, in return for such participation, had been withdrawn for the time being.

"We're still working and hoping for a positive decision, but for the moment, the package is off the table," the official said.

Meanwhile, The Anatolian news agency here quoted Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as saying that he did not, for now, plan to bring the issue up for fresh consideration in Parliament until after deputies hold a vote of confidence on his newly formed government.

Because that vote of confidence is expected late next week, a second Parliament vote on letting American troops use Turkey as a launching pad for an invasion of northern Iraq would probably be pushed to the next week, if then.

"At the moment, there is no such thing on our agenda," Mr. Erdogan said late Friday, after he formally became prime minister, according to the news agency.

American officials have pressed hard for such permission. But while Mr. Erdogan and other leading members of his Justice and Development Party have said that they support the American request, there is overwhelming opposition among Turks to a war in Iraq.

American officials are also pushing to use Turkish airspace. Mr. Erdogan has suggested that Parliament would have to weigh in on that as well.

The Turkish opposition to war was made clear again today when thousands of demonstrators gathered in the Mediterranean port of Iskenderun, where the United States has been unloading military equipment.

3. - The Daily Star(Lebanon) - "All signs point to Turkey entering the fray":

17 March 2003 / by Mohammad Noureddin *

Under almost any other circumstances, the fresh election to Parliament of Justice and Development Party (AKP) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan as MP for the province of Siirt would have been seen as an extremely significant event.

The relatively young (he is 49) Erdogan was in the 1990s the epitome of the successful, clean-living and incorruptible public official when he was mayor of Istanbul. Since he was deposed from office in 1998, Erdogan became a symbol of oppression by the Turkish regime. He was jailed and banned from public life.

Nevertheless, and with extraordinary determination, Erdogan led the new party he had formed in August 2001 to power after last November's historic general election.

Soon afterward, the new AKP-dominated Turkish Parliament abrogated all the legal and constitutional measures that stood in the way of Erdogan's assumption of a parliamentary seat.

As luck would have it, a by-election was called in Siirt, affording Erdogan with a golden opportunity to run for Parliament for the first time ever.

There is no doubt that Erdogan's election was an extraordinary event both for him personally and for Turkey generally. As s legislator and leader of the ruling party, he can exercise his right to form a government.

Since the last election, he has been exercising the authorities that come with the premiership without being constitutionally empowered to do so. That is why almost everyone in Turkey wanted him to assume the premiership officially, if only to do away with the "duality" that has characterized the AKP government of Abdullah Gul. All decisions made by the Gul Cabinet had to be approved by Erdogan, a situation that fostered mistrust in government performance.

Erdogan's success in Siirt provided an opportunity to correct that situation. By gaining a seat in Parliament, Erdogan, as leader of the ruling party and prime minister, would be directly accountable before the Turkish legislature, and would occupy a seat on the country's powerful National Security Council.

Because of the close relationship between Gul and Erdogan, and thanks to the competence demonstrated by the former during his tenure as premier, Erdogan appointed Gul foreign minister and deputy premier although there are voices within the AKP who prefer that he take on the portfolios of finance and the economy in order to oversee talks with the IMF, and supervise the privatization program scheduled for later this year.

In the coming phase, Erdogan will try to assert more control on the government and the AKP; the fact that 99 AKP lawmakers rebelled against him by rejecting a government bill calling for stationing US forces on Turkish soil and allowing Turkish forces to be deployed abroad would not have escaped Erdogan. He will most likely take steps to keep his party's MPs on a shorter leash from now on.

But Turkey's main preoccupation remains Iraq, despite the fact that it is embarking on a new era domestically.

After the surprise and resounding rejection by Parliament of the government bill authorizing the deployment of US forces, and the dispatch of Turkish forces to northern Iraq, contacts accelerated considerably between Ankara and Washington with both sides insisting that the vote would not damage relations between the two allies.

Four days later, however, Turkey's powerful chief of staff, General Hilmi Ozkok, detonated a bombshell by saying the Turkish Army must cross over into northern Iraq to minimize the damage Turkey would sustain if war breaks out. Turkey, Ozkok said, must not enter into a confrontation with the Americans.
Ozkok's position came as a great surprise. After all, the Turkish military had indicated (before the government bill was presented to Parliament) that the measure proposed by the government was inappropriate for Turkey's interests. So what has changed in the meantime?

According to Turkish sources, a number of developments have taken place since the parliamentary vote of March 1:

Ankara has become convinced that the Iraqi Kurds with American support are preparing to declare independence or at least a federation in northern Iraq after the war is over. The fact Washington has not been forthcoming on a number of issues Turkey sees as crucial (such as disarming the Kurds) has increased Turkish concerns that the Kurds are being groomed for a central role in the coming war something Ankara is against.

Washington's readiness to back the Kurds to the hilt if Turkey balks at helping the American war effort. The Turks are suspicious that the Americans were behind the large anti-Turkey demonstrations that took to the streets of northern Iraq two days before Ozkok made his statement in order to force them to change their minds.

American threats that unless Turkey backs the US, then what the Turks fear (i.e. the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq) will come to pass.

US Assistant Secretary of State Marc Grossman reiterated his country's opposition to a Turkish invasion of northern Iraq.

These factors convinced the Turks they would be committing an error if they chose to remain outside the Iraqi equation. The American threats, they figured, were serious. Hence Ozkok's statement, and Erdogan's assertion that Turkey will find itself in an extremely precarious position economically, politically and militarily if it continued to refuse American requests for help.

And sure enough, the Americans did not wait for a new resolution. Their ships, already moored off the Turkish Mediterranean port of Iskenderun, began to disgorge their cargoes of vehicles and soldiers who were soon on their way to northern Iraq.

The question now is not how and when the government will present a new bill to Parliament, but how it is going to convince MPs to back such a bill. According to one Turkish minister, the mere act of presenting a new bill will ensure Parliament's approval; otherwise the government would not take such a step.

Speaker Bulent Arinc, one of the most vehement opponents of the first bill, meanwhile described Ozkok's statement as "marvelous."

The generals have spoken, and a second bill will be presented to Parliament. There is no doubt that Turkey will take part in the coming war on Iraq.

* Mohammad Noureddine is a Beirut-based expert on Turkish affairs. He wrote this commentary for The Daily Star.

4. - Theran Times - "Bush Warns Turkey Against Unilateral Action in Northern Iraq":

ANKARA / 17 March 2003

U.S. President George W. Bush has warned Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that unilateral Turkish intervention in northern Iraq might lead to confrontation between Turkish and U.S. troops, the Milliyet newspaper reported Sunday as quoted by AFP.

The warning came in a letter from Bush on the occasion of Erdogan's election to Parliament, which was sent to the Turkish leader in the past week, Milliyet said.

Vice President Dick Cheney conveyed a similar message to Erdogan when they had a telephone conversation Thursday, according to the daily.

Turkey wants to send troops to northern Iraq in case of a war to keep under control local Kurds, whom it suspects of harboring separatist ambitions.

Ankara fears that Kurdish self-rule in the region could rekindle a recently subdued Kurdish rebellion in southeast Turkey.

But U.S. blessing for any Turkish military role in northern Iraq has been linked to Turkish logistical support for the United States, which Ankara has so far failed to offer.

Bush's special envoy to the Iraqi opposition, Zalmay Khalilzad, is currently in Ankara.

Khalilzad and Turkish officials are due to hold talks next week here with leaders of the Iraqi Kurds and other prominent figures in the Iraqi opposition, on whose support Washington is counting in its plans to oust the Baghdad regime.

Turkey's influential military also warned earlier this month that denying support to the United States could threaten Turkey's security interests in the region. Commenting on the Parliament's rejection of the deployment of U.S. forces in the country, Chief of General Staff Hilmi Ozkok said: "All that I wish now is that the stance we chose in order to avoid a war, will not force us to undertake certain acts at the expense of confronting the warring parties."

Frustrated by Turkish reluctance, Washington has recently stepped up pressure on Ankara to make up its mind on admitting U.S. troops into the country or at least opening its airspace to the use of the U.S. military.

Erdogan, however, has hinted that any such decision will not be on his agenda until his newly-inaugurated government wins a vote of confidence in Parliament, which could be held next Sunday at the earliest.

5. - The State (South Carolina/ U.S.) - "U.S. shifts strategy in Turkey":

ANKARA / 15 March 2003 / by Sudarsan Raghavan

In an effort to protect U.S. troops, the Bush Administration is shifting its focus from seeking Turkey's help in a war against Saddam Hussein to containing Turkey's ambitions in northern Iraq.

The Pentagon is concerned that U.S. troops could get caught in a "war within a war" involving Kurdish militias, ethnic Turkmen, Arabs, and possibly Iranian-backed forces jousting for territory, control and oil resources in northern Iraq.

This chaotic scenario would complicate an assault on Baghdad and obstruct the administration's goals of creating a democratic, united Iraq.

The match igniting this tinderbox of ethnic grudges, U.S. officials say, could be a decision by Turkey to send its armed forces into northern Iraq. Turkey currently is massing troops, tanks and artillery along the border.

Turkey is concerned that the Kurds may attempt to create an independent state that would embrace parts of Turkey, home to 15 million Kurds. It also wants to stop an influx of refugees and protect the rights of Iraqi Turkmen, who share a common ancestry.

"The stakes are obviously high for the Iraqis, the Turks and the United States should we send our forces there," said a senior U.S. official Saturday who spoke on condition of anonymity. "We want to prevent scenarios that involve our forces in difficult stances."

The official especially fears the possibility of U.S. forces fighting against the Turks, their historical allies, to stop attacks on another key ally, the Kurds. Such warfare could fracture the U.S. coalition and cause northern Iraq to spiral into a vicious side conflict, the official said.

Neighboring countries like Iran, too, might interpret any unilateral Turkish incursion as a provocation, entangling U.S. soldiers in a wider regional conflict.

To convince Turkey to stay within its own borders, Washington has dispatched Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special envoy to northern Iraq, to Ankara to meet next week with Turkish officials and senior Kurdish and Turkmen leaders.

Khalilzad's goal is to find ways to defuse mutual suspicions and to assure Turkey that its concerns can be addressed without having to deploy its military.

The shift in the administration's strategy comes as frustrated U.S. officials say they have all but given up on using Turkey as a launch pad for a northern invasion of Iraq or using its airspace for U.S. warplanes.

Turkey's new and inexperienced leaders have shown no hurry in pushing for legislative approval to host 62,000 U.S. troops or grant use of their air space to U.S. warplanes.

If approval had been forthcoming, the Pentagon would have permitted as many as 40,000 Turkish troops, in coordination with U.S. forces, to enter 12 1/2 miles into northern Iraq to protect Turkish interests. But without authorizing a U.S. deployment on its soil, the deal is now void, said the U.S. official.

Washington is urging Turkey to allow any refugee inflows to be handled by humanitarian agencies under U.S. supervision.

Washington has promised Turkey that it will not allow Iraq to break apart, creating an independent Kurdish nation. And, if necessary, U.S. forces would attack separatist guerrillas from the Kurdistan Worker's Party or PKK to stop them from reviving a violent uprising inside Turkey.

"There's nothing the Turkish forces can do in Iraq that the coalition forces cannot do," said the U.S. official, adding that any Turkish action would have "a negative effect on U.S.-Turkish relations."

Many Turks, meanwhile, view recent Kurdish demonstrations and burnings of the Turkish flag as symbols of a larger Kurdish threat to Turkey's national security.

Kurds, in turn, are concerned that Turkey wants to annex oil-rich areas in Kurdish areas and destroy their institutions. They have warned that they will resist any Turkish military incursion.

"It would be a nightmare scenario for the United States," if the Kurds and Turks fight each other in northern Iraq, said Henri Barkey, an expert on Kurdish and Turkish politics at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania.

"It would make a mockery of any enterprise to bring democracy to Iraq. It could bring Turkish occupation in northern Iraq, and if not, certainly guerrilla war."

6. - The Financial Times - "Turkey's stability falls amid build-up to war":

17 March 2003 / by Preston Keat *

Concerns about geopolitical risk have continued to build over the past month ahead of a likely war in Iraq.

However, among the Middle East countries that will be directly affected by the war, only Turkey witnessed a substantial decline in stability this month, according to the Legsi index.

Stability also declined in the Philippines and Nigeria following flare-ups of violence. Russia's overall rating improved after British oil group BP's decision to invest $6.75bn into a venture that will create the country's third-largest oil company in terms of production, improving the foreign investment climate.

In a surprise move on March 1, the Turkish parliament rejected a government motion to allow US troops access to the Iraqi border, harming Turkey's chances of receiving a $26bn economic aid package offered by Washington.

The Turkish parliament is due to vote on the issue for a second time in mid-March and it is possible that the original "no" vote will be overturned.

Turkey's stability declined further as a result of a court ruling banning the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HADEP), because of its alleged links with secessionist groups.

The verdict may harm Turkey's relations with the EU and came as Turkey's EU membership application was already under pressure on several fronts. Following the collapse of UN-sponsored Cyprus talks, the EU warned Turkey that its accession negotiations, scheduled for December 2004, could be postponed indefinitely if progress was not made soon.

In the Philippines, the military's capture of one of the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front 's (MILF) main camps on the southern island of Mindanao triggered retaliatory bombings and ambushes by the rebels. The violence came to a head on March 4, when a bomb went off at a big airport on the island killing 21 people and injuring more than 130.

The violence has heightened tensions between the two sides and stalled peace talks, increasing the risk of further attacks by the rebels on public infrastructure and high-visibility targets.

In Nigeria, a leading aid to the opposition All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP) presidential candidate Mohammadu Buhari, was shot outside his home in Abuja on March 5. The murder, which is believed to have been politically motivated, could trigger reprisal killings and substantially increase instability after the April national elections.

* Preston Keat is research director at Eurasia Group

7. - The Washington Times - "Turkey's Decisive Hour":

WASHINGTON / 16 March 2003 / by Martin Walker (UPI Chief International Correspondent)

This could have been Turkey's proudest moment. The stars and planets had come together to present Turkey with a golden opportunity to resolve its financial, its geopolitical and its great regional problems, all in the same brief moment of time.

By now, the U.S. Army's 4th Infantry Division could be rolling through the wild country south of lake Van to the Iraqi border, ready to roll down and force Saddam Hussein's wretched forces to divide and meet a second front. Cruise missiles and U.S. warplanes and an aerial conveyor belt of cargo aircraft and combat helicopters could be streaming through friendly Turkish airspace.

Turkey's proud tradition of 50 years of NATO loyalty would have been upheld, and the country would have maintained a special place in America's friendships. Moreover, some $28 billion in cash and credits would have been on their way into the empty Turkish treasury, providing the financial cushion that the new government sorely needs.

At the same time, Greek and Turkish Cypriots could be getting ready to vote in a referendum on the United Nations peace plan that could finally have ended their island's 29 years of partition. Rauf Denktash, the obdurate Turkish Cypriot leader, rejected the plan and refused to let his people vote (and all the signs that they would have voted Yes).

With the U.S. and European Union and the U.N. all urging a deal, Denktash could probably not have resisted the further pressure that could have put upon him to settle by the Turkish government and Turkish military. The Turks applied such pressure in December, but since then, distracted by the crisis over Iraq, they failed to do very much at all. And the wily old Denktash knows very well when his Turkish patrons -- the only ones who recognize his tinpot self-proclaimed statelet -- are seriously telling him it is time to deal.

The Turkish Cypriots are not the only ones who will suffer from the Denktash decision, and from Turkey's indecision. In fact, young Turkish Cypriots will start leaving the country for Istanbul, to get by roundabout routes to the Greek Cypriot half of the island, where they can apply for Republic of Cyprus passports that will qualify them to live and work anywhere in the EU.

But Turkey's own hopes of joining the EU have been significantly harmed. The EU does not want to take in only half an island, with a Berlin Wall-style border running through downtown Nicosia that is guarded by Turkish troops. In Europe, Turkey is blamed for failing to deliver Denktash. An EU spokesman noted last week that the legal situation was that Turkey could now be seen as occupying a piece of EU territory with its troops.

And the new Turkish prime minister, Recev Tayyip Erdogan, can forget about any lingering Franco-German gratitude for his country's part in hampering the American war machine. That was plain last week, when the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Abdullah Ocalan, the Kurdish separatist leader who launched a guerilla war that cost 30,000 lives, had not received a fair trial, and should be tried again. Turkey, which had commuted his death sentence to life imprisonment as a way of mollifying EU concerns about its human rights record, was furious all over again.

All this means that Turkey's bid to join the EU's prosperity club, always an uphill struggle given EU concerns about taking in a poor and Islamic state that will soon have the EU's largest population, looks increasingly forlorn. To have simultaneously offended the United States and the Europeans and thrown away a much needed $28 billion, mist be some kind of record for incompetent statesmanship.

And it could get worse. There are ominous signs that the Turkish military is gearing up to complicate the war on Iraq even further with a military incursion of its own into the Kurdish region of Northern Iraq. Vast convoys of military trucks have been rolling to the border, and the Kurds fear the Turkish generals are planning to wipe out the remnants of the PKK Kurdish guerillas, and to prevent Iraqi Kurdistan becoming the nucleus of an independent Kurdish state -- and thus a dangerous magnet for Turkey's own Kurds.

Barhim Salih, prime minister of the Kurdish enclave in Northern Iraq, in Washington Friday urged the Bush administration to ensure that the Turks stayed out, warning "it will create havoc." Other Kurdish leaders are vowing to fight the Turks if they cross the border -- and the Turkish parliament's own decision precluded the presence in the region of U.S. troops that could have controlled the potential for Turk-Kurd clashes.

So far, the new Turkish government has done almost everything possible against their own national self-interest. If their army takes advantage of the Iraq war to invade the Kurds, it will be a march of self-destructive folly. It may not be too late. Premier Erdogan has called a special session of parliament Sunday that may - or may not - finally give the U.S. permission to send both its troops and warplanes across Turkish territory. The prospects look slim. The tragedy is that Turkey's prospects could all have been so different and so hopeful.

8. - The Frontline (India) - "An electoral upset in Cyprus":

16 March 2003 / by John Cherian

There are fears that President Glafkos Clerides' defeat in the presidential election in Cyprus may affect the negotiations for the reunification of the divided island.

THE surprise defeat of the long-serving President Cyprus Glafkos Clerides in the elections held in the third week of February may not be good news for the proponents of speedy reunification of the divided island. Clerides was defeated by Opposition leader Tassos Papadopoulos. Papadopoulos, who was the youngest Minister in the first Cabinet of independent Cyprus under Archbishop Makarios, now becomes the fifth President of the republic.

Papadopoulos heads the centrist Democratic Party. It was the support of Akel, the Communist Party, that swung the verdict overwhelmingly in his favour. Akel has traditionally polled between 30 and 40 per cent of the votes. Akel is a strong supporter of reunification. It will be very difficult for the new President to ignore the Left's viewpoint on the question of reunification.

In his younger days Papadopoulos was known for his nationalist and anti-Turkish views. However, after winning the election, he has reiterated his commitment to continue the high-level dialogue with the North, despite his stated differences on some aspects of the latest United Nations-brokered plan. Papadopoulos announced after a meeting with the U.N. special envoy, Alvaro de Soto, in the third week of February that reunification talks with the North would be resumed immediately.

After the election results were announced, President Rauf Denktash, the northern Turkish Cypriot leader, said that he was "saddened" by the decision of the Greek Cypriot majority to support the candidate who was against the negotiations for a peaceful settlement. He expressed regret over the defeat of Clerides, saying that the outcome of the polls had seriously damaged the chances of reunification. "It is the intransigent stance of the Greek Cypriot people which won," he added.

Denktash also urged the President-elect to come out soon with a "realistic plan". Otherwise, he said, it would be pointless to continue with the talks. Papadopoulos had, during the campaign, proposed that certain changes need to be made in the proposed U.N. peace plan. He had also pledged to be the President of all Cypriots.

As the election results showed, the majority of Greek Cypriots are evidently unhappy with what they perceive as unnecessary concessions being made to hasten the pace of reunification. During the partition of the island, Turkish Cypriots had occupied a lot of land belonging to Greek Cypriots. Many of those who lost their land and property after the division of the island in 1974 want to restake their claims once the island is formally reunited. This demand has been rejected by the administration under Denktash.

The U.N. and the international community were depending on President Clerides to expedite the process of reunification.

THE Republic of Cyprus is anyway due to join the European Union by 2004. The accession papers to the E.U. are to be signed in April. Their Muslim brethren in north Cyprus would also like to be part of the prosperous economic grouping at the earliest. The U.N. had given the governments in the North and the South the deadline of February 28 to agree on reunification so that they can join the E.U. as one country.

Despite the latest developments, efforts are on to reach a diplomatic settlement. In the third week of February, Turkey's Prime Minister Abdullah Gul met U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan on the sidelines of the E.U. summit in Brussels.

There have been demonstrations in the North in the last couple of months favouring an immediate reunification. Almost the entire population in the North participated in one such demonstration. The economy of the North, in comparison with the South, is in dire straits. Owing to political compulsions, northern Cyprus is totally dependent on Turkey for all its needs. Turkey itself is eager to join the E.U. and is eager to withdraw its military from the island.

However, Denktash, who has been President of the breakaway state since partition in 1974, is known to be lukewarm to the plan put forward by Kofi Annan. Only Turkey recognises the Turkish Cypriot state. The new government in Ankara has been exerting tremendous pressure on Denktash to be more flexible. The feeling in Ankara is that if Cyprus enters the E.U. as one country, the chances of Turkey joining the E.U. will also improve.

The U.N. plan envisages a bi-zonal federation, with a joint Greek Cypriot/Turkish Cypriot government based in Nicosia. Denktash, still supported by Turkey, was initially opposed to the plan. He had pledged that the Turkish Cypriot majority would never again become a minority, nor would he allow domination by Greek Cypriot again. But recent events have shown that he has very little support left, both within his country and in Turkey. Even the settlers from Turkey, who now outnumber Turkish Cypriots, are for reunification.

Clerides had expended most of his time and energy to bring about an amicable and speedy resolution of the problem. Until recently the Turkish government had warned that it would annex northern Cyprus if the Republic of Cyprus joined the E.U. without a solution to the long-term problem of the island.